台风活动对中国沿海地区极端降水的影响  

Effects of typhoon activities on extreme precipitation in coastal areas of China

作　　者：高延康 赵铜铁钢 田雨[3] 杨芳 郑飞飞 陈晓宏 GAO Yankang;ZHAO Tongtiegang;TIAN Yu;YANG Fang;ZHENG Feifei;CHEN Xiaohong(School of Civil Engineering,Sun Yat-sen University,Zhuhai 519082,China;Key Laboratory for Water Security in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area(Preparatory),Ministry of Water Resources,Guangzhou 510611,China;Department of Water Resources,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China;College of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058,China)

机构地区：[1]中山大学土木工程学院,广东珠海519082 [2]水利部粤港澳大湾区水安全保障重点实验室(筹),广东广州510611 [3]中国水利水电科学研究院水资源研究所,北京100038 [4]浙江大学建筑工程学院,浙江杭州310058

出　　处：《水科学进展》2023年第1期1-11,共11页Advances in Water Science

基　　金：国家重点研发计划资助项目(2021YFC3001000);广东省“珠江人才计划”引进创新创业青年团队项目(2019ZT08G090)。

摘　　要：基于1961—2020年格点化数据集逐日降水资料及中国气象局台风最佳路径数据集,计算台风降水对中国沿海地区极端降水事件的贡献率;利用混合和单一元统计极值分布模型量化台风对降水极值概率分布的影响,探究其量化结果的影响因素,并通过典型流域进行流域尺度的应用验证。结果表明:从台风降水的贡献来看,台风降水主要影响中国沿海及部分临近沿海的内陆地区的高重现期极端降水事件;在量化台风影响方面,利用考虑台风降水分布的混合元统计极值分布模型可提高研究区大部分地区降水极值概率的估计,并且沿海地区台风降水的影响大于内陆地区,北方沿海地区的影响大于南方各分区;台风极端降水贡献率、台风与非台风降水差异是台风影响中国沿海地区降水极值概率分布的重要因素。Based on gridded daily precipitation data and the China Meteorological Administration typhoon best-track dataset from 1961 to 2020,this study presents an evaluation of the contribution of typhoons to extreme precipitation in coastal areas of China.Specifically, both mixed and single Metastatistical Extreme Value(MEV) models are devised to evaluate the effects of typhoons on the probability distribution of extreme precipitation amounts.The related influencing factors are explored by correlation tests and four case study watersheds are selected to showcase the effects of typhoons.The results show that typhoons make significant contribution to high-return-period extreme precipitation in coastal and some nearby inland areas of China.The mixed Metastatistical extreme value distribution, which takes into account the distribution of typhoon precipitation, can better formulate the probability of extreme precipitation.The relative errors between the estimated precipitation quantiles of mixed and single MEV tend to be larger in coastal areas than in inland areas, and also be larger in northern coastal areas than in southern sub-regions.Overall, the contribution of typhoons to extreme precipitation and the differences of average precipitation between typhoon-induced and non-typhoon-induced events are important influencing factors on the distribution of the probability of extreme precipitation in coastal areas of China.

关 键 词：台风轨迹 极端降水 区域影响 重现期 概率分布 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]