美国贸易政策不确定性对畜产品价格的冲击效应  

Impact of US trade policy uncertainty on the prices of livestock products

作　　者：李卉 唐华仓[1] 张玉香[1] 王春阳 徐园园 LI Hui;TANG Huacang;ZHANG Yuxiang;WANG Chunyang;XU Yuanyuan(College of Economics and Management,Henan Agricultural University,Zhengzhou 450046,China)

机构地区：[1]河南农业大学经济与管理学院,河南郑州450046

出　　处：《河南农业大学学报》2023年第1期160-167,共8页Journal of Henan Agricultural University

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究项目(20YJA790027)。

摘　　要：【目的】系统分析美国贸易政策变动对中国畜产品价格的传导机制和作用效果。【方法】基于2009年2月至2020年7月主要畜产品价格和美国贸易政策不确定性指数等多维月度数据,构建因子增广向量自回归模型,测度美国贸易政策不确定性对畜产品价格的冲击效应。【结果】中国畜产品价格受美国贸易政策不确定性冲击之后整体呈现正向响应,前5期响应强度较大,5期过后响应程度随着时间推移逐渐减弱直至消失。其中,猪肉价格的响应程度最大,生鲜乳价格响应持续时间较长。【结论】美国贸易政策不确定性通过进口数量、进口价格以及消费者价格指数3个渠道共同作用于中国畜产品价格,整体上畜产品价格随美国贸易政策不确定性指数升高而增加。其中,猪肉因消费偏好以及对外贸易的高度依赖性,其价格所受影响程度最大;生鲜乳因进口数量较大,其价格所受影响持续时间较长;鸡肉、牛肉、羊肉和鸡蛋价格受美国贸易政策不确定性影响相对较小。【Objective】Systematic analysis was conducted on the transmission mechanism and effects of changes in US trade policy on the prices of livestock products in China.【Method】A multi-dimensional monthly data of major livestock product prices and US trade policy uncertainty index from February 2009 to July 2020 were used to construct a factorial incremental Vector Auto-Regressive model to measure the response of livestock product prices to US trade policy uncertainty.【Result】The overall positive response of livestock prices to US trade policy uncertainty shocks is stronger in the first 5 periods,and the response weakens over time until it disappears after 5 periods.Among them,the response of pork prices is the strongest,and the response of raw milk grid lasts longer.【Conclusion】US trade policy uncertainty acts on domestic livestock product prices through three channels:import quantities,import prices,and consumer price indices,and livestock product prices increase as the US trade policy uncertainty index rises.Among them,pork prices are most affected due to consumer preference and high dependence on foreign trade;raw milk prices are affected for a longer period of time due to the large amount of imports;chicken,beef,mutton and egg prices are relatively less affected by the uncertainty of US trade policy.

关 键 词：美国贸易政策不确定性 中美贸易摩擦 畜产品价格 FAVAR 脉冲响应 冲击效应 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]