应用MaxEnt模型对新疆粉衣科地衣潜在分布区预测  

Prediction of Potential Distribution of CaliciaceaeLichens in Xinjiang by Using MaxEnt Model

作　　者：雒鹏 艾尼瓦尔·吐米尔[1] Luo Peng;Tumur Anwar(Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830046,P.R.China)

机构地区：[1]新疆大学,乌鲁木齐830046

出　　处：《东北林业大学学报》2023年第3期84-89,96,共7页Journal of Northeast Forestry University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(32160046、31660009)。

摘　　要：地衣因其特殊的生理特征,对气候变化十分敏感。运用新疆粉衣科地衣56个分布点和筛选后的9个环境变量,利用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)和地理信息系统(ArcGIS)预测新疆粉衣科地衣在不同气候情景下的适宜区,并分析影响其空间分布的因素。结果表明:最大熵模型模拟新疆粉衣科地衣分布的精度很高(AUC=0.903)。新疆粉衣科地衣的适生区主要位于阿尔泰山脉、巴尔鲁克山、天山山脉、伊犁河谷、昆仑山脉北部西段。坡度,年平均温度、最干季度降水量是影响新疆粉衣科地衣空间分布的最主要环境因子。质心在不同情景下的迁移,证明了地衣对气候变化敏感。Lichens are very sensitive to climate change due to their special physiological characteristics. With 56 distribution sites of Caliciaceaefrom Xinjiang and 9 selected environmental variables, the maximum entropy model and geographic information system were used to predict the suitable areas of Caliciaceae in Xinjiang under different climate scenarios, and to analyze the factors affecting their spatial distribution. The results show thatthe maximum entropy model has a high accuracy in simulating distribution of Caliciaceae in Xinjiang(AUC=0.903). The middle and high suitable areas of Caliciaceae are mainly located in the Altai Mountains, Balluk Mountains, Tianshan Mountains, Yili Valley and the western part of the northern Kunlun Mountains in Xinjiang. Slope, annual mean temperature and precipitation of driest quarter are the most important environmental factors affecting the spatial distribution of Caliciaceae in Xinjiang. The transfer of centroid in different scenarios proves that lichens are sensitive to climate change.

关 键 词：MaxEnt模型 空间分布 粉衣科 新疆 

分 类 号：Q948[生物学—植物学]