影响中国经济增长趋势的短期变量和长期结构性因素  

An Analysis of Short-term Variables and Long-term Structural Factors Affecting China’s Economic Growth Trend

作　　者：马晓河[1] Ma Xiao-he(China Academy of Macroeconomics,Beijing 100038)

机构地区：[1]中国宏观经济研究院,北京100038

出　　处：《经济纵横》2023年第2期35-42,F0002,共9页Economic Review Journal

摘　　要：近年来,我国经济增长趋势放缓,这是短期变量和长期结构性因素叠加的结果。短期变量主要是受新冠疫情、俄乌战争、中美贸易摩擦等引起的供需冲击,以及各级政府在同一时段相继出台一些规定形成了“合成谬误”,对经济运行形成了紧缩效应,在短期因素影响下,我国宏观经济政策面临失效或被减弱的风险。长期看,我国经济增长出现的趋势性下降是由结构转换迟缓引起的,带有机制性下降的特点。由投资带动经济增长转向消费引领的转型不及时,由中低端制造转向高端制造的进程滞后,由原始自主创新替代大规模复制创新过程受阻,加之人口结构过早过快出现老龄化及外部环境突变等,都是影响我国经济长期走向的重要因素。当前宏观政策目标短期是防止经济过快过大下滑,长期是防止经济增长提前过早出现趋势性下降。为此,必须加快转变增长方式,以深化改革、创新驱动、消费引领、制造业高端化为导向,重新塑造经济增长新动能。In recent years, China’s economic growth trend has slowed down, which is the result of the superposition of short-term variables and long-term structural factors. The short-term variables are mainly due to the impact of supply and demand caused by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the Russian-Ukraine war, and Sino-US trade frictions, as well as the “synthetic fallacy” of regulations issued by governments at all levels at the same time, which has a contractionary effect on economic operations. Under the influence of short-term factors, China’s macroeconomic policies face the risk of becoming invalid or weakened. In the long run, the trend decline in China’s economic growth is caused by the slow structural transformation and has the characteristics of a mechanism decline. The untimely transition from investment-driven economic growth to consumption-led, the lag in the transition from mid-to-low-end manufacturing to high-end manufacturing, the replacement of original independent innovation with large-scale replication and innovation, the premature aging of the population structure, and sudden changes in the external environment are all important factors affecting the long-term direction of China’s economy. The goal of the current macro policy is to prevent the economy from falling too fast and too much in the short term, and to prevent the trend of economic growth falling prematurely and prematurely in the long term. To this end, it is necessary to accelerate the transformation of the growth mode, adopt the guidance of deepening reform, innovation-driven, consumption-led, and high-end manufacturing, and reshape the new momentum of economic growth.

关 键 词：经济增长 供给 需求 创新 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]