工程项目未按期完工概率估算的新型数值模拟算法  

A novel simulation method for estimating probability of project completion time over target deadline

作　　者：王家 陈雅含 周忠宝[1] 刘可心 WANG Jia;CHEN Ya-han;ZHOU Zhong-bao;LIU Ke-xin(Business School,Hunan University,Changsha 410082,China;College of Civil Engineering,Hunan University,Changsha 410082,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南大学工商管理学院,长沙410082 [2]湖南大学土木工程学院,长沙410082

出　　处：《控制与决策》2023年第2期492-500,共9页Control and Decision

基　　金：中国博士后科学基金项目(2017M622575);应急管理智能决策技术湖南省重点实验室项目(2020TP1013)。

摘　　要：考虑到生产力波动、现场条件改变等不确定性因素的影响,工程项目的进度管理一般采用计划评审技术(program evaluation and review technique, PERT)网络模型,并以未按期完工概率作为重要的进度风险分析指标.针对工程项目的未按期完工概率估算,基于区域分解法,提出一种新型的数值模拟算法.针对PERT网络中的任一路径,将该路径的工期超出目标工期的事件定义为基本事件,从而将项目的未按期完工事件表示为所有基本事件的并集.所提出算法通过估计基本事件间的交集程度,对基本事件的概率求和进行折减,从而估算项目的未按期完工概率.通过算例验证,所提出模拟算法具有较好的估算准确度,且与蒙特卡罗方法相比有明显的计算效率提升.The program evaluation and review technique(PERT) network model is commonly used in project schedule management, in order to consider the influence of uncertainties in production, site conditions, etc. In the PERT network model, an important problem is to estimate the probability of the project completion time over target deadline as a measure of project schedule risk. In the paper, based on the domain decomposition method, a novel simulation method is proposed to estimate the concerned probability. In the method, corresponding to each path in the PERT network, a basic event is defined as the duration of this path over target deadline. Thus the event of the project completion time over target deadline can be expressed as a union of the defined basic events. In the proposed method, a reduction factor is estimated to measure the overlapping between different basic events, and then the concerned probability is estimated by the product of the reduction factor and the sum of the probabilities of basic events. As shown in the illustrative example, the proposed simulation method has good estimation accuracy, and it is more computationally efficient than the Monte Carlo simulation.

关 键 词：项目进度风险 未按期完工概率估算 计划评审技术网络 区域分解法 蒙特卡罗模拟 

分 类 号：C935[经济管理—管理学]