Projection of China’s future runoff based on the CMIP6 mid-high warming scenarios  

作　　者：Jiayue ZHOU Hui LU Kun YANG Ruijie JIANG Yuan YANG Wei WANG Xuejun ZHANG 

机构地区：[1]Department of Earth System Science,Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Earth System Modeling,Institute for Global Change Studies,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China [2]National Tibetan Plateau Data Center,State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System and Resource Environment,Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China [3]Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes,Scripps Institution of Oceanography,University of California San Diego,San Diego 92037,USA [4]Changjiang Institute of Survey,Planning,Design and Research,Wuhan 430010,China [5]State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China [6]Research Center on Flood and Drought Disaster Reduction of the Ministry of Water Resources,Beijing 100038,China

出　　处：《Science China Earth Sciences》2023年第3期528-546,共19页中国科学（地球科学英文版）

基　　金：supported by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program(STEP)(Grant No.2019QZKK0206);the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2017YFA0603703);the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.4200011953);the fundamental scientific research fund of China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research(Grant No.JZ110145B0052021)。

摘　　要：The latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)proposes new shared pathways(SSPs)that incorporate socioeconomic development with more comprehensive and scientific experimental designs;however,few studies have been performed on the projection of future multibasin hydrological changes in China based on CMIP6 models.In this paper,we use the Equidistant Cumulative Distribution Function method(EDCDFm)to perform downscaling and bias correction in daily precipitation,daily maximum temperature,and daily minimum temperature for six CMIP6 models based on the historical gridded data from the high-resolution China Meteorological Forcing Dataset(CMFD).We use the bias-corrected precipitation,temperature,and daily mean wind speed to drive the variable infiltration capacity(VIC)hydrological model,and study the changes in multiyear average annual precipitation,annual evapotranspiration and total annual runoff depth relative to the historical baseline period(1985–2014)for the Chinese mainland,basins and grid scales in the 21st century future under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.The study shows that the VIC model accurately simulates runoff in major Chinese basins;the model data accuracy improves substantially after downscaling bias correction;and the future multimodel-mean multiyear average annual precipitation,annual evapotranspiration,and total annual runoff depth for the Chinese mainland and each basin increase relative to the historical period in near future(2020–2049)and far future(2070–2099)under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5scenarios.The new CMIP6-based results of this paper can provide a strong reference for extreme event prevention,water resource utilization and management in China in the 21st century.

关 键 词：CMIP6 VIC model EDCDFm Chinese basins Future hydrological changes 

分 类 号：P338[天文地球—水文科学]