人力资本溢出与制造业升级——基于消费外部性的视角  

Human Capital Spillover and the Upgrading of Manufacturing Industry:From the Perspective of Consumption Externality

作　　者：李磊 Li Lei

机构地区：[1]中山大学国际金融学院,广东珠海519082

出　　处：《经济问题探索》2023年第3期126-142,共17页Inquiry Into Economic Issues

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“信息技术扩散政策对制造业升级的影响研究:效应、机制与优化”(72103211),主持人:李磊;教育部人文社会科学青年基金“人力资本消费外部性影响制造业升级的理论机制与实证研究”(20YJC790064),主持人:李磊。

摘　　要：在巩固壮大实体经济根基这一背景下,如何增强制造业在经济社会发展中的引领和支撑作用成为了备受关注的重要问题。本文首先构建了一个包含制造业和服务业的两部门理论框架,从理论上说明了人力资本消费外部性影响制造业升级的机制,接下来利用省-行业数据以及CHIP数据进行了实证检验。研究发现:人力资本水平提升通过消费外部性这一渠道促进了生活性服务业的发展,进而在就业替代效应的作用下倒逼制造业升级,该结论在利用经济普查数据检验后依旧成立。具体而言,在专业化分工的驱动下,高技能劳动力占比的提升引致了对生活性服务的需求,促进了低技能劳动力工资上涨,从而迫使劳动密集型的低端制造业升级或者退出。上述的结论表明人力资本溢出对中国制造业转型升级有着重要意义。In the context of consolidating and strengthening the foundation of the real economy,how to enhance the leading and supporting roles of the manufacturing industry in economic and social development has become an important issue of concern.First,this paper establishes a simple model including manufacturing industry and living service industry,which explains the impact channel of human capital consumption externality on manufacturing upgrading.Then,we make an empirical test by using provincial-industry data from 2005 to 2016 and CHIP data.The findings show that:the increasing proportion of high-skilled labor strengthens the employment substitution effect of living service industry through the channel of consumption externality,and then forces the upgrading of manufacturing industry.This conclusion is still valid after using the data from 2008 economic census.In particular,driven by specialization,the growing share of high-skilled labor increases the need for living services and encourages the rise in wages for low-skilled labor,which forces the upgrading or abolition of low-end manufacturing industries that require a lot of labor.The above conclusions show that human capital is of great significance to the transformation and upgrading of China’s manufacturing industry.

关 键 词：人力资本 消费外部性 生活性服务业 制造业升级 

分 类 号：F421[经济管理—产业经济]