金融助力经济回归潜在增长水平  

Finance Helps the Economy Return to the Potential Growth Level

作　　者：张晓晶 张明[1] 费兆奇[1] 曹婧 王喆 张冲 ZHANG Xiaojing;ZHANG Ming;FEI Zhaoqi;CAO Jing;WANG Zhe;ZHANG Chong(Institute of Finance and Banking,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100710,China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院金融研究所

出　　处：《金融评论》2023年第1期1-22,122,共23页Chinese Review of Financial Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大课题《宏观经济稳增长与金融系统防风险动态平衡机制研究》(19ZDA095);国家社会科学基金重点课题《宏观金融网络视角下的合意杠杆率研究》(19AJL006);中国社会科学院重大课题《统筹发展与安全》的支持。

摘　　要：2022年,国际方面,乌克兰危机叠加美联储加息,海外经济滞胀风险上升,全球金融市场动荡加剧;国内方面,经济增长从快速下降到缓慢回升,宏观杠杆率前高后稳,社融和信贷冲高回落,理财赎回潮增大年末债市波动,股市于深度调整中显较强韧性,中美经济、政策周期错位加大人民币贬值压力。总体上,面临国内外多重复杂因素冲击,2022年我国货币金融政策坚持“以我为主、稳字当头”总基调,助力稳住了经济基本盘。随着我国新冠肺炎疫情防控进入新阶段,促进房地产、平台经济健康发展以及金融业扩大开放,经济增长有望回归潜在增长水平。进入2023年,“稳增长,扩内需”成为宏观调控主基调,货币金融政策的首要目标是激发市场内生动能,发挥消费的基础作用和投资的关键作用,并着力稳物价、稳就业,推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长。In 2022,the world experienced a rise in economic stagflation risk due to the Russian-Uzbekistan conflict and an increase in the Federal Reserve's interest rates,leading to increased turbulence in global financial markets.In China,the economy saw a slow recovery from a rapid decline,with a stable macro leverage ratio,declining social finance and credit,increased bond market volatility due to financial redemption,and a resilient stock market amid adjustment.The Sino-US economic and policy cycle dislocation added to the pressure on the depreciation of the RMB.In response to these complex factors,China's monetary and financial policies maintained a focus on stability,with a priority on maintaining the basic economic situation.With the successful containment of the pandemic,China's real estate industry,platform economy,and financial sector are expected to drive economic growth towards its potential.In 2023,the main goal of macroeconomic policy is to stabilize growth and expand domestic demand.Monetary and financial policies aim to stimulate the market's endogenous momentum,enhance the role of consumption and investment,and stabilize prices and employment while promoting quality growth in the economy.

关 键 词：货币金融政策 房地产与平台经济 金融开放 潜在经济增长 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学] F113