Analysis of Precipitation Anomaly and a Failed Prediction During the Dragon-boat Rain Period in 2022  

作　　者：董少柔 杨崧 刘尉 胡娅敏 汪明圣 刘燕 DONG Shao-rou;YANG Song;LIU Wei;HU Ya-min;WANG Ming-sheng;LIU Yan(Guangdong Climate Center,Guangzhou 510641 China;School of Atmospheric Sciences and Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies,Sun Yat-sen University,Zhuhai,Guangdong 519000 China;Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai),Zhuhai,Guangdong 519082 China;Guangdong Meteorological Society,Guangzhou 510080 China)

机构地区：[1]Guangdong Climate Center,Guangzhou 510641 China [2]School of Atmospheric Sciences and Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies,Sun Yat-sen University,Zhuhai,Guangdong 519000 China [3]Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai),Zhuhai,Guangdong 519082 China [4]Guangdong Meteorological Society,Guangzhou 510080 China

出　　处：《Journal of Tropical Meteorology》2023年第1期115-127,共13页热带气象学报（英文版）

基　　金：National Natural Science Foundation of China Meteorological Joint Fund(U2142205);National Key Research and Development Program of China(2018YFA0606203);Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research(2020B0301030004);Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies(2020B1212060025);Innovation Group Project of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)(311021001)。

摘　　要：This study investigates the possible causes for the precipitation of Guangdong during dragon-boat rain period(DBRP) in 2022 that is remarkably more than the climate state and reviews the successes and failures of the prediction in2022. Features of atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature(SST) are analyzed based on several observational datasets for nearly 60 years from meteorological stations and the NCEP/NCAR Global Reanalysis Data. Results show that fluctuation of the 200-h Pa westerly wind as well as the westerly jet is strengthened due to the propagation of wave energy, leading to strong updraft over southern China. Activities of a subtropical high and a shear line provide favorable conditions for the transport of moisture to Guangdong. With the support of powerful southwest winds, extreme precipitation is induced. ENSO is a good indicator of atmospheric circulation at mid-and high-levels during the DBRP in2022 but it performs badly at low levels. During recent years, the influence of ENSO on precipitation during the DBRP has decreased obviously. The SSTA of tropical southeast Atlantic(SEA) in spring may become the key indicator. During the years with warm SEA, wave trains propagate from northwest to southeast over Eurasia with energy enhancing the westerly jet, conducive to updraft over southern China and the occurrence of heavy precipitation. Meanwhile, the Rossby wave is triggered over Maritime Continent by heat sources of southern Atlantic-western Indian Ocean through the Gill response. Thus, strong transport of moisture and heavy rainfall occur.

关 键 词：dragon-boat rain period(DBRP) precipitation ENSO climate prediction SSTA 

分 类 号：P466[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]