湘东南一次预报失败的暖区暴雨个例分析  

Analysis of a Forecast Failure Case of Warm-sector Heavy Rainfall in Southeast Hunan

作　　者：周宜卿 钟丽华 周长青 Zhou Yi-qing(Chenzhou Meteorolo-gical Observatory of Hunan Province,Chenzhou,Hunan 423000)

机构地区：[1]湖南省郴州市气象台,湖南郴州423000 [2]湖南省气象台,湖南长沙410007

出　　处：《农业灾害研究》2023年第1期127-129,共3页Journal of Agricultural Catastrophology

基　　金：郴州暖区暴雨特征研究(XQKJ17C002);郴州市地质灾害气象风险等级预报预警技术研究与应用(XQKJ20A007)。

摘　　要：利用常规观测资料、ERA5再分析数据以及EC和华东区域降水量预报资料,对2020年一次预报失败的暖区暴2个例进行分析。结果表明:该过程属于切变线型暖区暴雨;高空槽过境、近地层辐合以及高空辐散对暖区强降水的作用值得关注;水汽和不稳定能量主要来源于中低层西南急流的输送,边界层的抬升作用明显,高空辐散对降水的增幅作用大,K指数大值区和等值线密集区与强降水区域对应关系较好;该次暖区暴雨落区可参考华东中尺度模式订正,量级需要调小。By using the conventional observation data, ERA5 reanalysis data and EC and East China regional precipitation forecast data, a forecast failure case of warmsector heavy rainfall in 2020 was analyzed.The results showed that this case belonged to the shear line type warm-sector rainstorm.We should pay attention to effects of upper trough, convergence of the boundary layer and divergence of the upper layer on warmsector heavy rainfall. The water vapor and unstable energy came from the transport of the southwest jet in the middle and lower levels, and the rainstorms were closely related to the uplift of the boundary layer.The existence of the divergence at high level had a great effect on the increase of precipitation.There was a good correspondence between the high K index region and the concentrated isoline area of K index with the heavy precipitation region. The heavy rain area in this warm area can be corrected by referring to the East China medium scale model, and the magnitude needs to be reduced.

关 键 词：暖区暴雨 预报失败 模式检验 

分 类 号：P458.121.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]