推理公式法在复杂丘陵地貌设计洪水计算中的适用性分析  

Applicability Analysis of Reasoning Formula Method in Design Flood Calculation of Complex Hilly Landform

作　　者：刘春果 喻海军[1,2] 吴滨滨[1,2] 马建明 杨滨 LIU Chun-guo;YU Hai-jun;WU Bin-bin;MA Jian-ming;YANG Bin(China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China;Research Center on Flood and Drought Disaster Reduction of the Ministry of Water Resources,Beijing 100038,China;National Institute of Natural Hazards,Beijing 100085,China)

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038 [2]水利部防洪抗旱减灾工程技术研究中心,北京100038 [3]应急管理部国家自然灾害防治研究院,北京100085

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2023年第3期57-60,共4页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51909272)。

摘　　要：为研究推理公式法在复杂丘陵地区设计洪水计算中的适用性和误差来源,采用Morris筛选法分析了推理公式法参数的敏感性,通过与水文比拟法、历史洪水调查等结果进行对比,分析了推理公式法在不同流域面积的适用性。结果表明,面平均雨量是推理公式法主要的误差来源,误差随流域面积增大呈增加趋势,通过合理选择参数,对于面积在500~1 000 km^(2)的流域,推理公式法仍具有适用性;以蒲江河流域为例,采用传统面雨量计算方法(不折减),当控制断面集雨面积分别为100 km^(2)左右、100~500 km^(2)、大于500 km^(2)时,误差分别为5.1%~5.3%、11.2%~16.0%、25.2%~25.5%,当流域面积大于500 km^(2)时,通过面雨量合理折减后,计算结果比历史调查资料仅小约0.2%。In order to study the applicability and error sources of reasoning formula method in design flood calculation in complex hilly areas, Morris screening method was used to analyze the sensitivity of reasoning formula method parameters. The applicability of reasoning formula method in different watershed areas was analyzed by comparing with hydrological comparison method and historical flood survey results. The results show that the area average rainfall is the main error source of the reasoning formula method, and the error tends to increase with the area of the basin. The reasoning formula method can still be applied to the basin with an area of 500-1 000 km^(2) by reasonable selection of parameters. Taking Pujiang River Basin as an example, using the traditional area rainfall calculation method(without reduction), when the control section catchment area is about 100 km^(2), 100-500 km^(2) and more than 500 km^(2), the error is 5.1%-5.3%, 11.2%-16.0% and 25.2%-25.5%, respectively. When the basin area is larger than 500 km^(2), the calculated result is only about 0.2% smaller than the historical survey data after reasonable reduction of area rainfall.

关 键 词：推理公式法 设计洪水 丘陵地貌 敏感性分析 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]