基于灰色预测的水电开发利益共享模型研究  

Benefit Sharing Model of Hydropower Development Based on Grey Prediction

作　　者：孙海兵 张宁静 SUN Hai-bing;ZHANG Ning-jing(Centre for Reservoir Resettlement,China Three Gorge University,Yichang 443002,China)

机构地区：[1]三峡大学水库移民研究中心,湖北宜昌443002

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2023年第3期168-171,共4页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(19BMZ097)。

摘　　要：为破解水电开发利益分享数额的难题,建立定量化模型,并就模型运用及相应分配思路进行案例分析。结果表明,水电项目的利益相关者主要包括中央政府、地方政府、水电企业与水库移民,可应用净现值法构建利益共享模型,该模型中利益相关方以水电工程净现金流量现值之和与各自投入占比的乘积作为分享额,采用灰色预测法对模型求解,溪洛渡水电站的案例证明了模型的合理性。根据模型结果可设立移民共享发展基金且保障其他方应得利益,开拓水电开发共建共赢新局面。In order to solve the problem of benefit sharing amount, a quantitative model was established, and a case study was conducted on the application of the model and the corresponding benefit distribution ideas. The results indicate that the stakeholders of hydropower development projects mainly include the central government, local governments, hydropower enterprises and reservoir immigrants, and the net present value method can be used to construct the benefit sharing model, in which the stakeholders take the product of the sum of the present value of net cash flows of hydropower projects and their input shares as the sharing amount. The grey prediction method was used to solve the model. The case of Xiluodu Hydropower Station proves its rationality. It is suggested to establish a development fund for immigrants and safeguard the interests of other parties to open up a new situation of co-construction and win-win of hydropower development.

关 键 词：水电开发 利益共享 移民 测量模型 灰色预测 

分 类 号：TV74[水利工程—水利水电工程] D632.4[政治法律—政治学]