农业劳动力老龄化如何影响小麦全要素生产率增长  

How Does the Aging of Agricultural Labor Force Affect the Growth of Total Factor Productivity of Wheat?

作　　者：魏佳朔 高鸣 WEI Jiashuo;GAO Ming

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学国家农业农村发展研究院 [2]农业农村部农村经济研究中心

出　　处：《中国农村经济》2023年第2期109-128,共20页Chinese Rural Economy

基　　金：2022年度中国科协科技智库青年人才计划“粮食生产效率损失的影响机理与减损路径研究:基于政策效应与农户响应的视角”(编号:2022-257);中国博士后科学基金资助项目“收入性补贴对粮食生产率的影响研究:机理探析与实证检验”(编号:2020M670575);“土地流转对粮食全要素生产率的影响:机理、路径与对策”(编号:2020T130714)的资助。

摘　　要：基于2009-2020年全国农村固定观察点农户调查数据,本文运用结合工具变量法的双向固定效应模型、内生转换模型,实证检验了农业劳动力老龄化对小麦全要素生产率增长的影响。结果显示,农业劳动力老龄化减缓了小麦全要素生产率增长,并且随着老龄化程度加深,这一负面影响将会扩大。产生负面影响的原因是农业劳动力老龄化降低了小麦种植户采用新型技术的概率,减缓了技术进步。进一步分析表明,农业教育或培训、养老金收入、农村集体开展的农业技术推广、产前和产中环节的社会化服务能够在一定程度上缓解以上负面影响。为应对农业劳动力老龄化带来的影响和挑战,本文建议构建适应农业劳动力老龄化形势的技术推广体系,提高农民的基本养老金收入标准,着力推动农业社会化服务体系高质量发展。Based on the household survey data from the fixed observation points of rural areas in China from 2009 to 2020,this article empirically tests the impacts of the aging of agricultural labor force on the growth of total factor productivity(TFP)of wheat by using a two-way fixed effect model and an endogenous transformation model combined with the instrumental variable method.The results show that the aging of agricultural labor force has mitigated the growth of TFP of wheat,and with the deepening of the aging degree,this negative effect is likely to expand.The reason for the negative impact is that the aging of agricultural labor force has reduced the probability of wheat farmers to adopt new technologies and hindered their technological progress.Further analysis shows that agricultural education or training,pension income,agricultural technology promotion carried out by rural collectives,agricultural socialized services during the pre-production and production stages can alleviate the above negative effects to a certain extent.In order to cope with the impacts brought by the aging of agricultural labor force,this study proposes building a technology extension system that conforms to the background of the aging of agricultural labor force,improving the basic pension income standard of rural residents,and promoting a high-quality development of agricultural socialized services system.

关 键 词：农业劳动力 老龄化 粮食 全要素生产率 技术进步 

分 类 号：F323.6[经济管理—产业经济]