积极财政政策举措能够实现“自融资”吗——基于初始财政状态的分析  

Are Proactive Fiscal Policies“Self⁃Financing”?Analysis Based on the Initial Fiscal Stance

作　　者：王博 刘娟 WANG Bo;LIU Juan(Nankai University,300350)

机构地区：[1]南开大学金融学院,300350

出　　处：《财贸经济》2023年第3期40-54,共15页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“外部冲击对中国金融稳定的影响机理:不确定性与公共事件冲击视角”(72073076);国家社会科学基金重大专项“我国债务危机风险的防范治理与有效缓解对策研究”(18VFH007)。

摘　　要：在经济发展面临三重压力的背景下,支出型和税收型的积极财政政策均大有可为,探讨如何破解财政增支减收与债务约束之间的难题,具有重要的现实意义。本文基于省份季度数据,使用工具变量局部投影法和面板结构向量自回归方法定量分析了外生的财政冲击对地方财政可持续性的影响。结果发现,这一影响具有初始状态依赖性,政策实施时初始财政压力越小,越有利于放大正向支出冲击的政策收益,最终能够改善市场预期并降低地方负债率,即积极财政政策举措可以实现“自融资”。但当初始财政状况已经较为严峻时,扩张型财政支出措施将给其财政可持续性带来威胁,尤其体现在经济紧缩时期。进一步对比不同类型财政工具后发现,相比于增加政府支出,基于减税措施的积极财政政策可以更有效减少对地方财政状况的负面影响,从而为当前减税降费的财政效应,实现“放水养鱼、反哺财政”提供经验证据。As China faces triple pressures on economic development,proactive fiscal policies are very promising.It is of great importance to find a way out of the dilemma characterized by increasing fiscal expenditure and reducing revenue with debt constraints.Therefore,this paper tries to answer the question about under what initial fiscal stances the positive effects of proactive fiscal policy measures can be amplified to cover the costs and ultimately enhance local fiscal sustainability.This paper contributes to the existing literature in three aspects.First,by examining both the benefits and costs of fiscal policy,it fills the research gap in knowledge about impacts of proactive fiscal measures on fiscal stance itself.Second,the fiscal⁃state dependence of the impacts of local fiscal policy is verified and the interaction between the initial fiscal pressure and the initial economic state is considered to further refine the heterogeneity analysis of policy effects.Third,it integrates expenditure⁃type and tax⁃type fiscal measures into the same framework for comparative analysis.Based on the provincial quarterly data in China,this paper quantitatively analyzes the impacts of exogenous fiscal shock on local fiscal sustainability using local projection method of instrumental variables and panel structural vector autoregressive model.The results show that the above effects are dependent on the initial state.The smaller the initial fiscal pressure before the implementation of the policy,the more possible it is to amplify the benefits of the positive expenditure shock,which ultimately improves market expectations and reduces the local debt ratio.In other words,the proactive fiscal policy measures realize“self⁃financing”.But when initial fiscal stances are already severe,expansionary fiscal measures will threaten its fiscal sustainability,especially in times of economic contraction.A comparative study of different fiscal instruments shows that compared with increasing government spending,a proactive fiscal policy base

关 键 词：积极财政政策 财政可持续性 初始状态依赖性 

分 类 号：F812.7[经济管理—财政学]