中央政策统筹下的区域金融风险形成体系研究  

Research on the Regional Financial Risk Formation System under Central Policy Coordination

作　　者：周开国[1] 季苏楠 ZHOU Kaiguo;JI Sunan(Sun Yat-sen University,510275;Kunming University of Science and Technology,650504)

机构地区：[1]中山大学岭南学院,510275 [2]昆明理工大学管理与经济学院,650504

出　　处：《财贸经济》2023年第3期71-85,共15页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“外部突发事件引发金融风险跨市场传染的干预对策研究”(20&ZD103)。

摘　　要：本文构建了混合截面全局向量自回归模型,考察中央政策统筹下的区域金融风险形成体系。同时,按宏观经济性质将各个省份的经济体系划分为公共部门、金融部门、企业部门和居民部门,探究金融风险跨区域跨部门的传染路径,以及中央政策(货币政策和财政政策)冲击与区域金融风险的互动。研究结果表明:(1)省份之间的风险互动与所在区域和经济发展水平相关,经济发展水平超前的省份对区域金融风险的抵御能力较强;(2)企业部门和居民部门是大部分省份的风险来源,金融部门是区域金融风险传染的中介;(3)货币政策和财政政策在我国区域金融风险形成体系中起到了非对称的作用,即财政政策和货币政策会根据经济部门运行情况进行适当调整,重点关注居民部门和企业部门,其实施对经济部门产生的影响有限。本文的研究可为加强区域金融风险管理、有效实施财政政策和货币政策、防范系统性金融风险提供相关参考。Due to the rigid restriction of administrative division,the economic operation of each provincial region in China is relatively independent.However,in recent years,with the development of inter⁃provincial transportation and business,provincial regions have been inextricably connected.At this stage,we need to accurately grasp the financial risks in each region(especially each province)and their links with the real economy,so as to provide scientific theoretical basis and empirical support for preventing systemic risks.To study the financial risk contagion across regions,we need to be clear about two facts.First,the differences in the economic structure caused by the differences in natural environment and historical background in various regions(especially provinces)in China lead to their typical heterogeneity in economy and finance.Second,the current relationship between the central government and local governments in China is characterized by“political centralization and economic decentralization”.The central government delegates the responsibility of economic development to local governments,and retains the authority as the overseer and coordinator.Such features emphasize the role of the central government in the regional financial risk formation system:the central government is at a higher level,issuing policies that affect each provincial region,while also adjusting policies according to provincial economic and financial conditions.Therefore,when considering the cross⁃regional contagion of financial risk,the government should consider regional factors and provincial heterogeneity.Meanwhile,the central government's authority and coordination function should be incorporated into the research framework.Based on this,the paper adds the central policy into the GVAR model as an overall plan,and constructs the Mixed Cross⁃Section Global VAR(MCSGVAR)model.In addition,the economic system of each provincial region is divided into the public sector,the financial sector,the enterprise sector and the household se

关 键 词：区域金融风险 经济部门 政策冲击 风险传染 

分 类 号：F832.7[经济管理—金融学]