山东经济增长与化石能源消耗脱钩的区域差异与收敛性  

On Regional Differences and Convergence of Shandong's Decoupling between Economic Growth and Fossil Fuel Consumption

作　　者：张咏梅[1] 闫晴 赵金凯 ZHANG Yongmei;YAN Qing;ZHAO Jinkai(College of Economics and Management,Shandong University of Science and Technology,Qingdao 266590,Shandong,China)

机构地区：[1]山东科技大学经济管理学院,山东青岛266590

出　　处：《中国石油大学学报（社会科学版）》2023年第1期34-43,共10页Journal of China University of Petroleum (Edition of Social Sciences)

基　　金：山东省社会科学规划研究项目(21DJJJ15)。

摘　　要：山东省的经济体量和化石能源消耗在全国占比双高,以其为研究对象,基于Tapio脱钩模型,利用山东省2006—2019年各市化石能源消耗与经济增长的统计数据,揭示山东经济增长依赖化石能源消耗的事实,进一步测度山东各市经济增长和化石能源消耗的脱钩指数,并利用Dagum基尼系数揭示山东经济增长与化石能源消耗脱钩指数的差异和来源,最后借助收敛模型分析脱钩指数的收敛性。研究发现:山东整体及区域经济增长与化石能源消耗显著正相关,二者脱钩状态涵盖扩张连结、扩张负脱钩和弱脱钩,且在绝大多数年份处于弱脱钩状态;样本期内,脱钩指数区域间差异明显高于区域内差异和超变密度,是构成山东经济增长与化石能源消耗脱钩指数差异的主要来源,区域内差异和超变密度大小呈现出收敛趋势,区域重叠效应呈增加态势;山东省及胶东、鲁西、鲁中、鲁北四大地区脱钩指数不存在绝对σ收敛的态势,呈条件β收敛。Considering both high proportions of national economy and fossil fuel consumption,the study takes Shandong province as case study.Enlisting the Tapio decoupling model and the statistics on each urban fossil fuel consumption and economic growth from 2006 to 2019,the study is projected to reveal the fact of its economic growth on fossil fuel consumption and measure each urban decou-pling index,disclose the differences and the root causes for the decoupling index by Dagum Gini coefficient and finally analyze the index convergence by dint of the convergence model.Here are the results.There is a significant positive correlation between the provincial and regional economic growth and fossil fuel consumption with expansion connection,expansion negative decoupling and weak decoupling,and a weak decoupling state in most years.During the investigation period,the inter-regional differences for decoupling index are significantly higher than the intra-regional differences and hypervariable density,chiefly responsible for the decoupling index differences.The magnitude of regional difference and hypervariable density displays a convergence trend,and the regional overlap effect shows an increasing trend.There doesn̍texist absolute convergence trend of,but show conditional in terms of the decoupling index in Shandong Province and its Jiaodong peninsula,western region,central region and northern region.

关 键 词：经济增长 化石能源消耗 脱钩 区域差异 收敛 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]