RCEP能否抵消中美贸易战的影响:兼论保障中国经济安全  

Can RCEP Offset The Impact of The China-US Trade War:Reconsideration of China’s Economy Security

作　　者：张少军[1] 余志科 郑安然 ZHANG Shao-jun;YU Zhi-ke;ZHENG An-ran(School of Economics,Xiamen University,Xiamen,Fujian,361005,China;Sichuan Tuopai Shede Group Co.,Ltd.,Suining,Sichuan 629209,China;Boc Financial Technology Co.,Ltd.,Shanghai 201300,China)

机构地区：[1]厦门大学经济学院,福建厦门361005 [2]四川沱牌舍得集团有限公司,四川遂宁629209 [3]中银金融科技有限公司,上海201300

出　　处：《贵州财经大学学报》2023年第2期11-20,共10页Journal of Guizhou University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“中美经贸博弈背景下中国健全对外开放安全保障体系与提高自主发展能力研究”(20AZD102)。

摘　　要：通过构建多国多部门的结构模型,全面量化分析RCEP对中美贸易战的抵消作用。研究结果显示:(1)RCEP可以部分抵消中美贸易战,对中国产出的负面冲击;其中,农业、食品业、纺织业和林业等部门受益更大。(2)无论是出口还是进口,RCEP都可以有效抵消中美贸易战对中国外贸的负面冲击;且借助RCEP中的第三国,中美之间可以再次发生贸易联系,降低中美脱钩的风险。(3)RCEP还可以缓解中美贸易战对中国真实工资水平的负面影响。在中美贸易战长期化扩大化的国际背景下,积极参与自由贸易区,反对贸易保护主义,是在一个更加不稳定不确定的世界中保障中国经济安全的重要法宝。By constructing a multi-country and multi-sectoral structure model,this paper quantitatively analyzes the offsetting effect of RCEP on the China-US trade war.The main findings are:(1)RCEP can partially offset the negative impact of the China-US trade war on China’s output;among all sectors,the agriculture,food,textile and wooden sectors have benefited more.(2)Regardless of whether it is export or import,RCEP can effectively offset the negative impact of the China-US trade war on China's foreign trade;and with the help of a third country in RCEP,trade ties between China and the United States can again occur,reducing the risk of China-US decoupling.(3)RCEP can also alleviate the negative impact of the China-US trade war on China's real wages.Against the backdrop of the China-US trade war,actively participating in free trade zones and opposing trade protectionism is an important weapon for China to ensure economy security in a more unstable and uncertain world.

关 键 词：中美贸易战 RCEP 关税 结构模型 

分 类 号：F74[经济管理—国际贸易]