人口老龄化对产业结构升级的影响——基于黑龙江省的VAR分析  

The Impact of Population Aging on the Upgrading of Industrial Structure——VAR Analysis Based on Heilongjiang Province

作　　者：王宏[1] WANG Hong(School of Economics and Business Administration,Heilongjiang University,Harbin 150080,China)

机构地区：[1]黑龙江大学经济与工商管理学院,哈尔滨150080

出　　处：《哈尔滨工业大学学报（社会科学版）》2023年第2期153-160,共8页Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology(Social Sciences Edition)

摘　　要：立足于黑龙江省的实际情况,分析人口老龄化与产业结构优化的发展现状。就人口老龄化对产业结构升级的影响进行实证分析。首先,对人口老龄化与黑龙江省产业结构高级化之间进行平稳性检验和协整检验。其次,为了更进一步地研究人口老龄化对黑龙江省产业结构升级影响的动态特征,构建VAR模型,进而进行脉冲响应分析和方差分解,探讨人口老龄化对产业结构的冲击影响并测度其在产业结构升级过程中的贡献度。Based on the actual situation of Heilongjiang Province,this paper analyzes the development status of population aging and industrial structure optimization in Heilongjiang Province.This paper makes an empirical analysis on the impact of population aging on the upgrading of industrial structure.Firstly,the stability test and cointegration test are carried out between population aging and the upgrading of industrial structure in Heilongjiang Province.Secondly,in order to further study the dynamic characteristics of the impact of population aging on the upgrading of industrial structure in Heilongjiang Province,this paper constructs VAR model,then carries out impulse response analysis and variance decomposition,discusses the impact of population aging on industrial structure,and measures its contribution to the upgrading of industrial structure.

关 键 词：黑龙江省 人口老龄化 产业结构升级 VAR模型 脉冲响应函数 

分 类 号：F842.6[经济管理—保险]