基于改进SIR模型的网络安全态势分析  

Network Security Situation Analysis Based on Improved SIR Model

作　　者：肖军弼 华力 XIAO Jun-Bi;HUA Li(Qingdao Institute of Software&College of Computer Science and Technology,China University of Petroleum,Qingdao 266580,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学青岛软件学院、计算机科学与技术学院,青岛266580

出　　处：《计算机系统应用》2023年第3期48-57,共10页Computer Systems & Applications

基　　金：2020年中国高校产学研创新基金(202002182024)。

摘　　要：为研究计算机病毒传播对网络系统安全态势的影响,分析了SIR流行病传播模型与计算机网络安全之间的联系,提出了一种用于网络安全态势预测的SIPM模型. SIPM模型中加入了节点对不同病毒传播的记忆功能,支持多种病毒同时在网络中独立进行传播,并在SIR模型基础上改进了动力学传播方程,允许单独设置病毒对不同设备节点的感染能力和设备节点对不同病毒的抵御能力,进而更加贴近真实网络环境.实验分析使用了典型校园网络架构进行模拟仿真,结果表明该模型可以从多个方面进行网络安全态势的分析与预测.This study is conducted to study the influence of computer virus spread on the security situation of network systems. It analyzes the relationship between the SIR epidemic spread model and computer network security and proposes an SIPM model for network security situation prediction. Specifically, the SIPM model adds the memory function of nodes for different virus propagation, supports the independent propagation of multiple viruses in the network at the same time, and improves the dynamic propagation equation on the basis of the SIR model. It allows the independent setting of the infection ability of viruses to different device nodes and that of the resistance of device nodes to different viruses,which is closer to the real network environment. The experimental analysis uses a typical campus network architecture for simulation, and the results show that the model can analyze and predict the network security situation from many aspects.

关 键 词：园区网络 病毒传播 传播动力学 网络安全 态势感知 

分 类 号：TP393.08[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]