基于贝叶斯网络的流域水环境承载力超载风险评价—以北运河流域为例  

Risk assessment of water environmental carrying capacity overloading based on Bayesian network:A case study of the North Canal basin

作　　者：傅婕 曹若馨 曾维华[1] 卓越 王立婷 FU Jie;CAO Ruoxin;ZENG Weihua;ZHUO Yue;WANG Liting(School of Environment,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学环境学院,北京100875

出　　处：《环境科学学报》2023年第3期516-528,共13页Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae

基　　金：国家自然科学基金区域创新发展联合基金重点支持项目(No.U20A20881017233);国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项课题(No.2018ZX07111003)。

摘　　要：现有流域水环境承载力评估研究大多从确定性角度进行评价,从流域水环境承载力超载风险角度评价的较少.为弥补以上不足,本文从不确定性分析角度,耦合水环境和水资源两个水环境承载力分量超载风险及其对应的概率,构建了基于贝叶斯网络的流域水环境承载力超载风险评价模型,并依据超载风险的概率分布确定流域各控制单元的超载风险指数.最后以北运河流域为例,对其水环境承载力超载风险进行了评价,并依据评价结果进行超载风险分区.结果表明:中度超载风险区包含清河闸、榆林庄、大红门闸上、东堤头闸上4个控制单元,重度超载风险区包含南沙河入昌平、前侯尚村桥2个控制单元;基于“卸荷”和“强载”的双向调控理念,在产业结构、技术手段和环保意识等方面从全过程控制角度提出降低流域水环境承载力超载风险的调控措施.Most of the existing research on the assessment of water environmental carrying capacity of river basins are evaluated from the perspective of certainty.And the risk assessment of overloading of water environmental carrying capacity of river basins is rarely seen in the literature.In order to make up for the above deficiencies,this paper coupled the overloading risk of water environment and water resources and corresponding probability from the perspective of uncertainty analysis by Bayesian network model.The average level of overloading risk was determined according to the probability distribution of overloading risk.The overloading risk of water environmental carrying capacity in the North Canal was evaluated,and the overloading risk was divided according to the evaluation results.The results show that the moderate overloading risk area includes Qinghezha,Yulinzhuang and other four control units.And the severe overloading risk area includes two control units at Nansha River entering Changping and Qianhoushang Village Bridge.Based on the bidirectional regulation concept of"unloading"and"heavy loading",the regulation measures to reduce the risk of overloading of water environmental carrying capacity were proposed from the perspective of the whole process control in terms of industrial structure,technological means and environmental awareness.

关 键 词：北运河流域 水环境承载力 超载风险评价 贝叶斯网络 

分 类 号：X32[环境科学与工程—环境工程]