美联储资产负债表演变及政策内涵研究  

A Study on the Evolution and Policy Implications of the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet

作　　者：徐鹏[1] 于祝焱 Xu Peng;Yu Zhuyan

机构地区：[1]中国宏观经济研究院市场与价格研究所 [2]宾夕法尼亚大学

出　　处：《宏观经济研究》2023年第2期4-22,36,共20页Macroeconomics

摘　　要：当前,美联储资产负债表已成为研究美联储施政方针的重要工具之一。美联储的重要操作在其资产负债表中大多都有所体现。通过研究美联储资产负债表的演变,剖析演变历史脉络背后所蕴含的政策含义,有助于我们更好地认识美联储货币政策的主要目标、操作框架、重要工具、传导渠道、溢出效应。本文从美联储资产负债表的关键科目入手,重点分析关键科目背后折射出的货币政策内涵,并在此基础上探讨美联储加息和缩表对金融市场的影响。研究表明,美联储基本完成了新的货币政策框架构建,利率走廊体系不断修补完善,新框架下美联储能够较好地控制货币的量和价;美国货币政策和财政政策已深度捆绑,财政赤字货币化可能将抬升中长期全球通胀中枢;美联储货币政策收紧初期和末期会对债市、股市、汇市产生较大冲击。对此,需要高度关注、积极应对。Currently, the balance sheet of the United States Federal Reserve has become one of the most important tools for studying the Fed’s approach to governance. Most of the Fed’s important operations are reflected in its balance sheet. By studying the evolution of the Fed’s balance sheet and analyzing the policy implications behind the historical lineage, we can better understand the main objectives, operational framework, important tools, transmission channels, and spillover effects of the Fed’s monetary policy. This paper focuses on the monetary policy implications behind the key accounts of the Fed’s balance sheet and discusses the potential impact of Fed rate hikes and tapering on the financial markets on this basis. The study shows that the Fed has basically completed the construction of the new monetary policy framework, and the interest rate corridor system has been continuously repaired and improved, and the Fed can better control the quantity and price of money under the new framework;U.S. monetary and fiscal policies have been deeply bundled, and the monetization of fiscal deficits may raise the medium and long term global inflation pivot;the initial and final tightening of the Fed’s monetary policy will have a large impact on the bond, stock and currency markets. In this regard, a high degree of attention and active response is required.

关 键 词：美联储 资产负债表 货币政策框架 

分 类 号：F827.12[经济管理—财政学] F837.12