卢拉胜选的原因及影响——基于巴西内政外交视角的分析  

The Reasons for Lula's Election Victory and its Impact:An Analysis from the Perspective of Brazil's Domestic Politics and Diplomacy

作　　者：严若玮 宋均营 Yan Ruowei;Song Junying

机构地区：[1]中国国际问题研究院拉美所

出　　处：《拉丁美洲研究》2023年第1期90-110,156,共22页Journal of Latin American Studies

摘　　要：2022年巴西大选结束后,卢拉以极其微弱的优势战胜极右翼时任总统博索纳罗,于2023年1月1日正式就任。卢拉、博索纳罗两人的支持者在身份和地域分布方面呈现出明显的差异,反映出巴西政治的深度分裂。卢拉胜选一方面是由于劳工党在组织建设、竞选纲领和意识形态取向上尽可能照顾到各方利益,设计了较为完善的竞选策略;另一方面则是由于博索纳罗执政期间的表现一再令选民失望,使选民不禁怀念卢拉执政的“黄金年代”。但卢拉就职后也将面临诸多挑战。右翼力量在国会中进一步增强,经济、民生、环境等领域的治理问题积重难返,博索纳罗的政治遗产仍会发挥作用,这些都对卢拉执政形成掣肘,开启新的治理模式并非易事。多重挑战使卢拉在内政方面的调整空间受限,未来其施政重点将放在外交领域,改善巴中关系,调整与欧美国家关系,促进地区一体化,在国际舞台上塑造巴西的大国形象。本文从巴西内政外交的视角,结合劳工党团队的竞选策略和上届政府的执政表现,分析卢拉在2022年总统选举中胜出的原因及其影响,并对其施政前景进行展望。Former Brazilian president Lula da Silva won a narrow victory over Jair Bolsonaro in the 2022 presidential election and was officially inaugurated on January 1,2023.The stark differences in identity and geographic distribution between the supporters of the two main presidential candidates reflect a deep divide in Brazilian politics.On the one hand,Lula won the election because the Labor Party took the interests of all parties into account as much as possible in its organisational structure,campaign program and ideological orientation,and designed a relatively perfect campaign strategy;on the other hand,Bolsonaro's performance as president has repeatedly disappointed his voters,making them nostalgic for Lula's"golden years".Nevertheless,the Lula administration still faces challenges after taking office.The further strengthening of right-wing forces in Congress will make it more difficult for the Lula government to implement new policies,and the remaining governance problems in the areas of the economy,people's livelihoods and the environment will become more pronounced.Bolsonaro's political legacy will also pose certain obstacles for Lula in setting a new political agenda.These challenges have limited Lula's room for manoeuvre in domestic policy.As a result,he is expected to focus on diplomacy by improving Brazil-China relations,adjusting Brazil-US and Brazil-EU relations,and building Brazil's image as a great power in the multilateral arena.From the perspective of Brazilian domestic politics and foreign policy,based on the electoral strategy of the Labor Party team and the performance of the previous administration,this paper explores the factors that led to Lula's victory in the 2022 presidential election,and predicts the impact it will have on the future performance of Lula administration.

关 键 词：巴西大选 卢拉 劳工党 博索纳罗 

分 类 号：D777.7[政治法律—政治学]