河流突发性二元重金属复合污染暴露风险研究———以东江下游为例  

Joint Exposure Risk Assessment for Dual Heavy Metal Mixing Contamination Emergencies in the Lower Reaches of the Dongjiang River

作　　者：刘静 刘仁志[2] 邹长新 林乃峰 张瀚文 张志娇 LIU Jing;LIU Renzhi;ZOU Changxin;LIN Naifeng;ZHANG Hanwen;ZHANG Zhijiao(Nanjing Institute of Environmental Sciences,Ministry of Ecology and Environment,Nanjing 210042,China;State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation,School of Environment,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;Institute of Strategic Planning,Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning,Ministry of Ecology and Environment,Beijing 100012,China;Institute of Environmental Risk&Damages Assessment,Guangdong Provincial Academy of Environmental Science,Guangzhou 510045,China)

机构地区：[1]生态环境部南京环境科学研究所,江苏南京210042 [2]北京师范大学环境学院,环境模拟与污染控制国家重点联合实验室,北京100875 [3]生态环境部环境规划院战略规划所,北京100012 [4]广东省环境科学研究院环境风险与损害鉴定评估研究所,广东广州510045

出　　处：《应用基础与工程科学学报》2023年第1期13-23,共11页Journal of Basic Science and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52170186);江苏省自然科学基金项目(BK20220205);国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFB3901104)。

摘　　要：Ⅱ突发性重金属水污染事件是威胁人群健康、河流生态和财产安全的主要环境风险之一.对突发性重金属急性联合暴露风险的研究有助于提高河流风险管理水平,增强风险决策科学性.针对宏观尺度上缺乏突发性重金属复合污染联合效应研究的问题,以河流突发性重金属污染的水动力-水质动态模拟为基础,引入Copula函数,构建二元重金属联合暴露风险评价模型.以中国东江下游河段为案例,开展典型电镀企业突发性Cr(Ⅵ)-Hg(Ⅱ)复合污染的风险评价.结果表明,突发性Cr(Ⅵ)-Hg(Ⅱ)污染急性联合暴露的概率分布受Cr(Ⅵ)/Hg(Ⅱ)单一暴露的边缘分布共同影响,非“线性加和”关系;Cr(Ⅵ)边缘概率分布对Cr(Ⅵ)-Hg(Ⅱ)联合暴露概率分布的影响更显著.基于Copula函数的联合暴露风险评价模型实现了宏观水环境中多种重金属急性联合暴露风险的定量化表征,具有较高的灵活性与准确性.Acute heavy metal leakage accidents pose an essential threat to human health, ecosystem balance, and property security in a river.Joint exposure risk assessment for an accidental heavy metal mixed pollution is helpful to improve the quality and delicacy of risk prevention and management.To address the lack of research on the joint exposure risk assessment of accidental river pollution caused by heavy metal leakage, a Copula-based exposure risk dynamic simulation model was proposed.A coupled hydrodynamic and accidental heavy metal exposure model is constructed for an hourly simulation of the concentration distributions of heavy metals from each risk source once accidental leakage has occurred.The Copula analysis was introduced to calculate the dual heavy metal joint exposure probability in real time.This method was applied to an acute Cr(Ⅵ)-Hg(Ⅱ) joint exposure risk assessment for a typical electroplating enterprise in the mainstream of the lower reaches of the Dongjiang River.The results indicated the Cr(Ⅵ)-Hg(ⅡⅥ) joint exposure probability distributions were influenced by both Cr(Ⅵ) and Hg(Ⅱ) marginal exposure functions, rather than the linear superposition.Besides, acute Cr(Ⅵ) exposure has a greater impact on the joint exposure probability distributions, compared to the acute Hg(Ⅱ) exposure.This research highlights an effective probabilistic approach for performing a joint exposure risk analysis of accidental river pollution caused by the heavy metal mixtures.

关 键 词：河流突发性污染 重金属联合暴露 COPULA函数 Cr(Ⅵ)-Hg(Ⅱ)复合污染 东江下游 

分 类 号：X820.4[环境科学与工程—环境工程]