2010—2019年ECWMF和NCEP集合模式对热带气旋路径预报的性能评估  

Evaluation of Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Performance of ECMWF and NCEP Ensemble Models from 2010 to 2019

作　　者：钱奇峰 毛冬艳 QIAN Qifeng;MAO Dongyan(National Meteorological Centre,Beijing 100081)

机构地区：[1]国家气象中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气象》2023年第2期224-234,共11页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：广东省重点领域研发计划重点专项项目(2019B111101002);国家重点研发计划(2017YFC1501604);气象预报业务关键技术发展专项[YBGJXM(2020)3A-03]共同资助。

摘　　要：中国气象局是全球大集合预报系统数据交换中心之一,自2010年以来,欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)和美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)等国外全球集合预报(GEFS)先后进入国家气象中心(NMC)实时业务,多模式的应用促进了我国热带气旋预报业务的进步。利用2010—2019年ECMWF和NCEP两家主要的国外集合模式资料,从分强度、分移速、分月份、分海域、是否登陆、是否转向等方面开展了两家模式在热带气旋路径预报中的性能评估和系统性偏差分析。结果表明,两家模式集合平均的预报误差总体都呈下降趋势,并都存在一定的系统性偏差,但偏差方向几乎相反,ECMWF集合预报易偏向实况西南向,NCEP集合预报易偏向东北向,且后者数值更大。目前ECMWF集合预报性能要优于NCEP集合预报,特别是对于弱热带气旋和登陆热带气旋等情形优势更大。预报中当两家模式分歧较大的时候,性能评估和偏差分析结果也可为主观订正提供参考依据。China Meteorological Administration(CMA)is one of the data exchange centers of global ensemble forecasting system.Global ensemble forecast systems(GEFS),including the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF),and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)have been used in real-time operation of the National Meteorological Centre(NMC)of CMA since 2010.The application of multi-model has promoted the progress of tropical cyclone forecasting operation of CMA.Based on the data of ECMWF and NCEP ensemble models from 2010 to 2019,we evaluate the performance and systematic deviation of their track forecast performance in following aspects:intensity,moving speed,month,ocean area,landing and turning.The ensemble mean forecast errors of the two models generally show a downward trend,and their systematic deviations are almost in the opposite directions.Separately,ECMWF ensemble forecast has a southwest bias,while NCEP ensemble tends to be northeastward,and is larger than the former in number.At present,the track prediction performance of ECMWF ensemble model is better than that of NCEP,especially for weak TCs and landing TCs.The results of the performance evaluation and deviation analysis could also provide a reference for actual TC forecasts when there are obvious differences between the products of the two ensemble models.

关 键 词：热带气旋 集合模式 评估 系统性偏差 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]