基于组合模型预测吉林东部山区原麝的适宜分布区  

Ensemble Model⁃Based Prediction of Suitable Distribution of Moschus moschiferus in the Eastern Mountainous Area of Jilin Province

作　　者：刘炳莲 苗润泽 陈旭升 马帅 杨雨佳 刘庚[2,3] 朱洪强 LIU Binglian;MIAO Runze;CHEN Xusheng;MA Shuai;YANG Yujia;LIU Geng;ZHU Hongqiang(Graduate School of Jilin Agricultural University,Changchun 130118,China;Institute of Forestry Research,Jilin Provincial Academy of Forestry Sciences,Changchun 130033,China;Jilin Provincial Key Laboratory of Changbai Mountain Animal Resources and Biodiversity,Changchun 130033,China;College of Animal Science and Technology,Jilin Agricultural University,Changchun 130118,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林农业大学研究生院,长春130118 [2]吉林省林业科学研究院林业研究所,长春130033 [3]长白山动物资源与生物多样性吉林省重点实验室,长春130033 [4]吉林农业大学动物科学技术学院,长春130118

出　　处：《四川动物》2023年第2期121-130,共10页Sichuan Journal of Zoology

摘　　要：原麝Moschus moschiferus为国家一级重点保护野生动物。本研究基于吉林省东部山区野外调查获得的68份原麝位点数据及17份环境变量数据,选择Biomod2平台集成表现较好的单一模型形成组合模型进行预测,分析不同气候条件下原麝潜在适宜分布区及中心变化。结果表明:组合模型较单一模型具有更高的精度(TSS=0.937,AUC=0.947)。原麝潜在适宜分布区主要位于珲春市、汪清县和长白县;偏好最暖季度均温和最冷季度均温适中、海拔较高且距水源距离较近的落叶针叶林及针阔混交林区域;在未来气候情景下,潜在适宜分布区收缩;分布中心呈先向西南后向东部迁移的趋势。本研究对未来加强生境保护及物种研究具有重要意义,对未来监测和评估我国原麝保护区的空间分布和迁移提供了数据基础。Moschus mosciferus is a classⅠnationally key protected wild species in China.Based on 68 M.mosciferus site data obtained from the field survey and 17 environmental variable data in the eastern mountainous area of Jilin Province,the potential suitable distribution and central changes under different climatic conditions were analyzed based on a combined model of single models performed on Biomod2 platform.The results showed that the combined model has higher precision than the single model(TSS=0.937,AUC=0.947).The potential suitable distribution areas are mainly located in Hunchun City,Wangqing County and Changbai County.M.mosciferus prefers deciduous coniferous forests and mixed forests of coniferous and broad-leaved trees with moderate average temperature in the warmest and coldest seasons,higher altitude and closer to water resources.Under the future climate scenario,the potential suitable distribution area of M.mosciferus shrinks,and the distribution center first moves to the southwest,and then to the east.This study is of great significance to strengthen the habitat protection and species research in the future,and provides a data basis for monitoring and evaluating the spatial distribution and migration of M.mosciferus in China.

关 键 词：原麝 吉林省东部山区 组合模型 适宜分布 气候变化 

分 类 号：Q958[生物学—动物学] Q959.8