农村流动妇女生育的潜力、意愿及影响因素研究——基于机器学习算法的实证检验  

Rural Migrant Women’s Fertility Potential,Intentions,and Factors That Affect Those Intentions:Empirical Test Based on Machine Learning

作　　者：王增文[1] 罗佩玲 吴健 WANG ZengWen;LUO PeiLing;WU Jian(Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学社会保障研究中心,湖北武汉430072 [2]武汉大学政治与公共管理学院,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《财贸研究》2023年第2期1-11,共11页Finance and Trade Research

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学规划基金项目“抚育成本与家庭收益失衡下破解低生育率难题的政策架构研究”(21YJA630093)。

摘　　要：基于2018年中国流动人口动态监测调查数据(CMDS),使用机器学习算法探究农村流动妇女生育的潜力、意愿及影响因素。研究结果表明:第一,农村流动妇女总体生育水平较低但生育潜力较大;第二,对农村流动妇女生育意愿影响最显著的特征主要有包括生育数量、是否已育男孩、是否已育女孩在内的生育特征,以及年龄、受教育程度、健康状况等个人特征;第三,生育数量、年龄、受教育程度、是否已育男孩是影响农村流动妇女生育意愿的四个最重要因素。基于此,一方面要重视农村流动妇女生育数量的增加,对其生育行为由监管控制转向鼓励支持,并针对性地引导有生育潜力的农村流动妇女生育;另一方面要注意农村流动妇女生育质量和结构的提升,提高农村流动人口优生优育服务水平,完善农村流动人口的养老保障体系以降低“男孩偏好”。Based on the data form the 2018 China Migrants Dynamic Survey(CMDS),a machine learning algorithm is used to explore the overall fertility potential,intentions,and factors that influence those fertility intentions of rural migrant women.The results are as follows:First,rural migrant women have a low overall fertility level but high fertility potential.Second,the most significant features influencing rural migrant women’s fertility intentions are fertility-related characteristics including the number of children,whether they have already given birth to boys or girls,as well as personal characteristics including age,education level,and health status.Third,the four most important factors that influence fertility intentions of rural migrant women are the number of children,age,education level,and whether or not they already have a son.Based on these findings,it is imperative to not only prioritize the increase of fertility rates among rural migrant women,but also shift the regulatory and control measures toward encouraging and targeting those with high fertility potential.Concurrently,it is essential to enhance the quality and structure of reproductive behavior among rural migrant women,improve eugenics services and enhance pension security system of rural floating population with the aim of mitigating the male-child preference.

关 键 词：人口均衡发展 农村流动妇女 生育意愿 机器学习 

分 类 号：C924.21[社会学—人口学] TP181[自动化与计算机技术—控制理论与控制工程]