急性脑出血病人合并肺栓塞风险预测模型的建立  

Establishment of risk prediction model of occurrence of pulmonary embolism in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage

作　　者：邓天芳[1] 邵世蓉 陈敏 王艳[1] 杨光琳[1] DENG Tianfang;SHAO Shirong;CHEN Min;WANG Yan;YANG Guanglin(People′s Hospital of Deyang City,Sichuan 618000 China)

机构地区：[1]德阳市人民医院,四川618000

出　　处：《护理研究》2023年第6期988-992,共5页Chinese Nursing Research

摘　　要：目的:探讨急性脑出血病人合并肺栓塞的危险因素,并建立风险预测模型。方法:选取2017年7月—2019年10月在我院神经外科住院治疗的213例急性脑出血病人作为建模组,选取2019年11月—2020年11月在我院神经外科住院治疗的82例急性脑出血病人作为验证组,收集病人临床资料,通过单因素和多因素分析筛选急性脑出血病人合并肺栓塞的危险因素,并建立风险预测模型。结果:295例急性脑出血的病人中有71例发生肺栓塞,发生率为24.07%。年龄≥65岁、患糖尿病、卧床时间≥7 d、发生深静脉血栓、存在慢性肺部疾病、有外科手术史是急性脑出血合并肺栓塞的独立危险因素(P<0.05)。基于以上危险因素,构建急性脑出血病人合并肺栓塞的风险预测模型,建模组和验证组的校正曲线与理想曲线较为接近,建模组和验证组的一致性指数分别为0.881[95%CI(0.858,0.904)]和0.843[95%CI(0.805,0.881)]。结论:急性脑出血病人肺栓塞发生率较高,年龄≥65岁、患糖尿病、卧床时间≥7 d、发生深静脉血栓、存在慢性肺部疾病、有外科手术史是急性脑出血病人合并肺栓塞的独立危险因素,本研究构建的风险预测模型预测能力较好,具有较高准确度。Objective:To explore risk factors of occurrence of pulmonary embolism in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage,and establish risk prediction model.Methods:213 patients with intracerebral hemorrhage accepted by our hospital from July 2017 to October 2019 were selected as modeling group,and 82 patients with intracerebral hemorrhage accepted by our hospital from November 2019 to November 2020 were selected as verification group.Clinical data of the patients were collected.Risk factors of occurrence of pulmonary embolism in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage were screened by univariate analysis and multi-factors analysis.And risk prediction model was established.Results:71 of the 295 patients with intracerebral hemorrhage occurred pulmonary embolism,the rate was 24.07%.Age≥65 years old,diabetes,bed time≥7 d,deep venous thrombosis,chronic lung disease,history of surgical surgery were independent risk factors of occurrence of pulmonary embolism in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage(P<0.05).Based on above risk factors,risk prediction model of occurrence of pulmonary embolism in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage was built.Correct curve in modeling group and verification group were closer to the ideal curve.C-index of modeling group and verification group were 0.881[95%CI(0.858,0.904)]and 0.843[95%CI(0.805,0.881)],respectively.Conclusions:The incidence of pulmonary embolism in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage is higher.Age≥65 years old,diabetes,bed time≥7 d,deep venous thrombosis,chronic pulmonary disease,history of surgical surgery were independent risk factors of occurrence of pulmonary embolism in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage,with higher accuracy.

关 键 词：急性脑出血 肺栓塞 预测模型 影响因素 护理 

分 类 号：R473.74[医药卫生—护理学]