中国非洲贸易自由化的潜在经济效应研究  

Research on the Potential Economic Effects of China-Africa Trade Liberalization

作　　者：马永健 郑志强 范爱军[3] Ma Yong-jian;Zheng Zhi-qiang;Fan Ai-jun

机构地区：[1]湖北经济学院金融学院,武汉430205 [2]湖北金融发展与金融安全研究中心,武汉430205 [3]山东大学经济学院,济南250100

出　　处：《亚太经济》2023年第1期61-70,共10页Asia-Pacific Economic Review

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目“我国海外园区全球布局的空间选择与协同治理研究”(19ZDA137)。

摘　　要：在对中国与非洲联盟55国贸易发展现状分析的基础上,运用动态全球贸易分析模型分析非洲大陆自由贸易区建设以及中非贸易自由化的潜在经济效应,并论证中非贸易自由化应对中美贸易摩擦潜在冲击的有效性。结果表明:中非双边贸易关系整体比较紧密,双边贸易结构具有良好的互补性;非洲大陆自由贸易区建设将一定程度激活非洲国家的贸易活力,改善多数国家的经济发展水平、贸易条件以及福利水平;中非贸易自由化将对中国经济发展、进出口贸易、贸易条件和福利水平产生潜在积极影响,有助于改善中国各行业的贸易条件和进口贸易,但可能对先进制造业、服务业等行业的出口贸易与产出活动产生一定的挤出或者替代效应;中非贸易自由化将有效缓解中美贸易摩擦造成的不利冲击,中国可以有针对性地与东部非洲、南部非洲国家开启自由贸易协定谈判,进而实质性对接非洲大陆自贸区建设。Based on the status analysis of trade relations between China and the African Union 55 countries,the paper uses the Dynamic Global Trade Analysis Model(GTAP)to simulate the potential economic effects of African economic integration and China-Africa trade liberalization,and to demonstrate the effectiveness of China-Africa trade liberalization responding to China-US trade friction.The results are as follows,bilateral trade relations between China and Africa are relatively close overall,and the bilateral trade structure shows good complementarity.African economic integration will activate trade vitality of African countries to a certain extent,and improve the economic development levels,terms of trade and welfare levels of most countries.China-Africa trade liberalization will have potential positive impacts on China's economic development,export and import trade,terms of trade and welfare level,and help im-prove terms of trade and import trade of China's various industries,but may have certain extrusion or substitution ef-fects on export trade and output activities in industries such as advanced manufacturing and service industries.China-Africa trade liberalization will effectively alleviate the adverse impacts of China-US trade friction,and China can open up free trade agreement negotiations contrapuntally with Eastern and Southern African countries to substantially con-nect African Continental Free Trade Area.

关 键 词：中非贸易自由化 非洲大陆自由贸易区 中美贸易摩擦 动态GTAP模型 

分 类 号：F741.2[经济管理—国际贸易]