美国挑动国际地缘冲突的经济逻辑分析  

The Economic Logic Analysis of the United States Provoking International Geopolitical Conflicts

作　　者：桑百川[1] 张子航 Sang Bai-chuan;Zhang Zi-hang

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学国际经济研究院,北京100029

出　　处：《亚太经济》2023年第1期80-90,共11页Asia-Pacific Economic Review

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目“中国参与多边贸易体制改革的方案设计与谈判策略研究”(19ZDA064)阶段性研究成果;对外经济贸易大学研究生科研创新基金资助。

摘　　要：垄断资本主义取代自由资本主义进而发展为国家垄断资本主义后,美国政府与垄断资本紧密结合,利用财政政策缓解社会经济矛盾,帮助垄断资本开拓国际市场,攫取高额利润,由此导致联邦政府债务和赤字大幅攀升,美元面临贬值压力。为了维持美元霸权,维护垄断资本和金融寡头的利益,美国通过挑动国际地缘冲突,促使寻求避险的国际短期资本回流美国,助推美元升值,并使美国垄断资本和金融寡头大发战争财。以美国1971—2020年的年度数据为基础,基于VAR模型构建的4变量系统证实了这一逻辑。实证结果表明,美元汇率与美国挑动国际地缘冲突之间同时存在长期和短期均衡关系。当美元贬值时,美国挑动国际地缘冲突的频次增加。这一发现为我们认识美国对外政策和战略的经济逻辑找到了新的突破口。After monopoly capitalism replaced free capitalism and developed into state monopoly capitalism, the U.S. government closely combined with monopoly capital, alleviated social and economic contradictions by using fiscal policies, helped monopoly capital to explore the international market and grab high profits, which led to a sharp rise in federal government debt and deficit, and the dollar faced depreciation pressure. In order to maintain the hegemony of the dollar and protect the interests of monopoly capital and financial oligarchs, the United States promotes the return of international short-term capital seeking refuge to the United States by inciting international geopolitical conflicts, thus boosting the appreciation of the dollar and making the monopoly capital and financial oligarchs rich in war money. Based on the annual data of the United States from 1971 to 2020, the 4-variable system constructed based on the VAR model confirms this logic. The empirical results show that there is not only a long-term equilibrium relationship but also a short-term equilibrium relationship between the US dollar exchange rate and international geopolitical conflicts initiated by the US. When the dollar depreciates, the United States starts international geopolitical conflicts more frequently. This discovery provides a new breakthrough for us to understand the foreign policy and strategic economic logic of the United States.

关 键 词：美元汇率 国际地缘冲突 国家垄断资本主义 

分 类 号：F13[经济管理—世界经济] F17