考虑季末调整的季节性产品(Q_(i),R_(i))库存模型与管理  

Inventory Model and Management of Seasonal(Q_(i),R_(i))Considering End-of-Season Adjustments

作　　者：孙凌云 朱晓燕 龚其国 王谦 SUN Ling-yun;ZHU Xiao-yan;GONG Qi-guo;WANG Qian(School of Economics and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大学经济与管理学院,北京100190

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2023年第1期42-51,共10页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：2017国家自然科学基金重点项目(71731008):大数据驱动的高速铁路高可用性研究。

摘　　要：考虑季节性产品需求的季节性周期变化、季节内需求不确定性双重波动对产品需求的影响,为季节性产品进行综合需求预测,制定库存管理策略提供参考.本研究综合Holt-Winter需求预测模型和(Q,R)库存模型进行订货点和订货量的决策,并针对季节性产品特点提出了季节间转换时期的订货策略.最后,利用上述模型和某化工企业多年实际数据,进行实证研究,对化工产品的订货量和订货点进行优化,验证了本研究提出的模型与方法可以大幅降低季节性产品库存成本和缺货率研究对季节性产品库存管理有着重要的学术与实践意义。This document considers the impact of seasonal cycle changes in demand for seasonal products and the dual fuctuations in demand uncertainty,and develops comprehensive demand forecasts and inventory management strategies for seasonal products.This document integrates Holt-Winter demand forecasting model and(Q,R)inventory model on order point and order quantity decisions,and proposes an ordering strategy for seasonal products during the inter-seasonal transition period.Finally,by using the above models and the actual historical data of a chemical company,it conducted an empirical study to optimize the order quantity and order point of chemical products,and verified that this model and method can significantly reduce the inventory cost and stock-out rate of seasonal products.This study has significant academic and practical implications on seasonal product inventory management.

关 键 词：季节性产品 Holt-Winter预测模型 (Q R)模型 库存管理 

分 类 号：F426.7[经济管理—产业经济] F274F224