贸易政策不确定性与中国制造业“稳外资”:基于外资新企业进入视角  

Trade Policy Uncertainty and Stabilizing Foreign Capital of Manufacturing Industry:from the Perspective of Foreign New Enterprise Entry

作　　者：郭平 胡君 GUO Ping;HU Jun

机构地区：[1]南京财经大学金融学院

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2023年第2期34-49,M0002,M0003,共18页World Economy Studies

基　　金：国家自然科学基金地区项目“贸易政策不确定性对中国企业出口的风险溢出与应对策略研究”(项目编号:71863036)阶段性研究成果;江苏省社会科学基金青年项目“不确定环境下提升江苏制造业发展韧性的路径与对策研究”(项目编号:22EYC004)阶段性研究成果;江苏高校哲学社会科学研究一般项目“长三角数字经济与区域科技创新的耦合机制与协同发展路径研究”(项目编号:2022SJYB0263)阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：贸易政策不确定性已成为影响中国制造业外资利用的不可忽视因素,而加快促进外资新企业进入是实现制造业“稳外资”的重要目标。基于外资新企业进入视角,在利用工商注册数据对外资活动进行准确测度的基础上,文章试图揭示贸易政策不确定性对中国制造业外资利用的影响。研究结果表明:(1)外资新企业进入受到贸易政策不确定性的冲击程度与其面临的贸易风险敞口相关;贸易政策不确定通过实物期权效应与制度摩擦效应,降低中国制造业外资新企业进入的数量与规模;(2)当外资企业所处行业的资产可逆性较小或契约密集度较大时,贸易政策不确定性对制造业外资新企业进入的负向影响更为显著;(3)异质性分析表明,贸易政策不确定性对合资型、研发型外资新企业进入的影响较小;(4)随着金融市场化程度提升与地方营商环境改善,贸易政策不确定性对制造业外资新企业进入的抑制作用将会显著弱化。文章结论将为在不确定性环境下实现中国制造业“稳外资”目标提供重要理论依据与实践指导。The trade policy uncertainty has become an unneglectable factor which affects the utilization of foreign capital in Chinese manufacturing industry,and accelerating the entry of new foreign capital enterprise is an important target in stabilizing foreign capital of manufacturing industry. From the perspective of the entry of new foreign enterprises,this paper tries to reveal the important impact of trade policy uncertainty on the entry of new foreign enterprises in our manufacturing industry based on the accurate measurement of foreign activities using industrial and commercial registration data. The results show that the impact of trade policy uncertainty on the entry of new foreign-funded enterprises is related to their trade risk exposure. The trade policy uncertainty will reduce the number and scale of foreign investment in Chinese manufacturing industry through real option effect and institutional friction effect. When the asset reversibility of the industry is small or the contract intensity is large,the negative impact of trade policy uncertainty on the entry of new foreign enterprises in manufacturing industry is more significant. The heterogeneity analysis shows that the impact of trade policy uncertainty on the entry of joint venture and R&D enterprises is smaller. At the same time,with the improvement of financial marketization and local business environment,the inhibitory effect of trade policy uncertainty on the entry of foreign enterprises in manufacturing will be significantly weakened. The conclusion of this paper will provide an important theoretical basis and practical guidance for realizing the target of " Stabilizing Foreign Capital" of Chinese manufacturing industry under the uncertain environment.

关 键 词：贸易政策不确定性 外资活动 实物期权 制度摩擦 稳外资 

分 类 号：F752.0[经济管理—国际贸易] F424[经济管理—产业经济] F832.6