考虑CCUS电转气技术及碳市场风险的电–气综合能源系统低碳调度  

Low-carbon Optimal Scheduling of Integrated Electricity-gas Energy Systems Considering CCUS-P2G Technology and Risk of Carbon Market

作　　者：郭静蓉 向月[1] 吴佳婕 吴刚 GUO Jingrong;XIANG Yue;WU Jiajie;WU Gang(College of Electrical Engineering,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610065,Sichuan Province,China;The Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics,Xiamen University,Xiamen 361005,Fujian Province,China;State Grid Sichuan Economic Research Institute,Chengdu 610041,Sichuan Province,China)

机构地区：[1]四川大学电气工程学院,四川省成都市610065 [2]厦门大学王亚南经济研究院,福建省厦门市361005 [3]国网四川省电力公司经济技术研究院,四川省成都市610041

出　　处：《中国电机工程学报》2023年第4期1290-1302,共13页Proceedings of the CSEE

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(U2166211)。

摘　　要：在碳市场价格波动的背景下,合理量化碳交易价格波动风险并制定相应的低碳运行策略对于降低系统运行成本和碳排放量具有十分重要的意义。该文提出一种考虑碳市场价格风险及碳捕集、利用与封存系统–电转气协同运行的电–气综合能源系统低碳优化调度模型。首先,利用广义自回归条件异方差模型预测次交易日碳价,并使用条件风险价值衡量碳市场价格波动风险,为电–气综合能源系统调度提供碳价参考。然后,引入碳捕集、利用与封存系统–电转气协同运行框架,将碳捕集机组捕获的CO_(2)作为电转气原料,电转气利用负荷谷期的风电出力生产天然气,以电–气综合能源系统总调度成本及碳交易风险最低为目标建立优化调度模型。最后,在改进的IEEE 24节点和天然气6节点系统构成的电–气综合能源系统中进行仿真。结果表明,提出的调度模型能够捕捉碳市场波动期内风险,提高电–气综合能源系统可再生能源消纳量,并降低系统总运行成本和碳排放。In the context of carbon market price risk, it is urgent to quantify the risk of carbon market volatility and formulate corresponding low-carbon operation strategies for energy systems to reduce operation costs and carbon emissions.A low-carbon optimal dispatching model for integrated electricity-gas energy system(IEGS) considering carbon price risk with carbon capture utilization and storage system(CCUS)and power to gas(P2G) synergistic operation is proposed. First,the generalized auto regressive conditional heteroskedasticity model is used to predict the carbon price on the next trading day, and the conditional value at risk model is used to measure the risk of price fluctuations to provide a carbon price basis for IEGS. Then, the CCUS-P2G operation framework is introduced. The CO_(2)captured by the carbon capture unit is used as the raw material for P2G conversion, and the curtailed wind power is used to produce natural gas by P2G units during the load valley period. The optimal scheduling model is established to minimize the operation cost and risk of carbon trading. Finally, simulations are conducted in an IEGS composed of an improved IEEE 24-bus system and a natural gas 6-node system. The results demonstrate that the proposed scheduling model can accurately measure the risk during the fluctuation period of the carbon market and increase the renewable energy consumption of the IEGS, and thus achieve reductions in total operation costs and carbon emissions.

关 键 词：广义自回归条件异方差模型 碳捕集、利用与封存 电转气 电–气综合能源系统 优化调度 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]