阿克苏断层氢中强震异常特征分析及预报效能评价  

Characteristic analysis and forecasting effectiveness of Aksu fault hydrogen anomalies for moderate-strong earthquakes

作　　者：刘海洋 徐衍刚[1] 祖力卡尔·艾则孜 蒋志英[1] Liu Haiyang;Xu Yangang;Zulikaer Aizezi;Jiang Zhiying(Aksu Earthquake Monitoring Center Station,Earthquake Agency of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,Xinjiang Aksu 843000,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆维吾尔自治区地震局阿克苏地震监测中心站,新疆阿克苏843000

出　　处：《地震科学进展》2023年第3期120-126,共7页Progress in Earthquake Sciences

基　　金：中国地震局三结合课题(3JH-202201051)资助。

摘　　要：2013年11月—2021年12月阿克苏断层氢观测点周边300 km范围内,先后发生了多次中强地震,断层氢浓度值出现了8次不同程度的短临前兆异常。通过对异常特征的分析总结,将已取得的震例划分为波动型、突升型和突升恢复型3种不同类型。利用R值评分法对阿克苏断层氢观测进行预报效能评价,阿克苏断层氢对周边300 km范围内5级以上地震R值评分为0.462,预报效能较好。There were multiple moderate-strong earthquakes occurred successively within an area of 300 km around the Aksu fault hydrogen observation point during the period from November 2013 to December 2021,for which 8 shortterm precursory anomalies of fault hydrogen concentrations appeared in different degrees change. By analyzing and summarizing the abnormal characteristics,the obtained earthquake cases are divided into three different types:fluctuation type,sudden rise type and sudden rise recovery type. Using the scoring method of R value to evaluate the forecasting effectiveness of the Aksu fault hydrogen observation,R value score of 0.462 has been obtained for earthquakes with magnitude above 5 within the range of 300 km,and the forecasting effectiveness is good.

关 键 词：断层氢 异常分析 预报效能 R值评分 

分 类 号：P315.75[天文地球—地震学]