我国对中亚五国直接投资的经济增长效应研究——兼论女性就业的中介作用  

The Economic Growth Effect of China's Direct Investment in Five Central Asian Countries——the Intermediary Role of Female Employment

作　　者：努尔兰别克·哈巴斯[1] 杨梦微 Nurlanbek-Hapas;YANG Meng-wei(School of Economics and Management,Xinjiang University,Urumqi,Xinjiang,830046)

机构地区：[1]新疆大学经济与管理学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830046

出　　处：《新疆大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2023年第1期37-48,共12页Journal of Xinjiang University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“‘一带一路’建设背景下大型石油企业对中亚五国直接投资的动机与行为研究”(17BGL227)。

摘　　要：女性作为一国经济发展进程中的“半边天”,对外直接投资能否激发一国女性经济潜能以促进经济增长却依然难有定论。基于我国对中亚五国2004—2019年对外直接投资的面板数据,采用固定效应模型探讨了我国对中亚五国直接投资的经济增长效应以及作用机制。研究结果显示:(1)我国直接投资对中亚五国经济增长总体上有显著推动作用,但影响程度与显著性存在国别差异,我国对中亚五国直接投资的经济增长效应主要体现在资本积累、出口溢出、制度变迁、投资集聚以及基础设施建设五个方面;(2)通过检验“我国对外直接投资—女性就业—经济增长”这条作用机制,发现我国直接投资对中亚五国经济增长的总效应中,约有10.8%是通过提高当地女性就业水平实现的,进一步分析发现,我国直接投资主要是通过提高服务业和工业女性就业水平来推动中亚五国经济增长。Women are"half of the sky"in a country's economic development,but it is still difficult to determine whether FDI can stimulate the economic potential of women in a country to promote economic growth.Based on the panel data of China's foreign direct investment to the five Central Asian countries from 2004 to 2019,this paper applied the fixed effect model to analyze the economic growth effect and mechanism of China's foreign direct investment to the five Central Asian countries.Results showed that(1)China's direct investment to the five central Asian countries generally have a significant role in promoting economic growth,but there are differences of the influence degree and the significance in different countries.The effects are mainly about the accumulation of capital,export overflow,institutional change,concentration of investment and infrastructure construction;(2)By examining the mechanism of"China's FDI—female employment—Economic growth",it found that about 10.8%of the total effect is achieved by improving the employment of local women.Further analysis finds that China's foreign direct investment mainly promotes the economic growth of the countries by improving the employment of women in services and industry.

关 键 词：对外直接投资 女性就业 经济增长 中亚五国 中介作用 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] F832