我国地方政府公共服务支出“回弹效应”:机制与检验  

The“Rebound Effect”of Local Government Public Service Expenditure in China:Mechanism and Test

作　　者：庞伟 岳树民[2] 孙玉栋[3] PANG Wei;YUE Shumin;Sun Yudong(School of Economics,Beijing Technology and Business University,Beijing 100048,China;School of Finance,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China;School of Public Administration and Policy,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China)

机构地区：[1]北京工商大学经济学院,北京100048 [2]中国人民大学财政金融学院,北京100872 [3]中国人民大学公共管理学院,北京100872

出　　处：《当代经济科学》2023年第2期44-57,共14页Modern Economic Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金专项项目“财税治理现代化问题研究”(17VZL012);国家社会科学基金重点项目“新发展阶段财税体制促进高质量发展研究”(22AZD017)。

摘　　要：从2003年中央政府明确提出“建立预算绩效评价体系”,到2018年强调加快建成全方位、全过程、全覆盖的预算绩效管理体系,中国的财政资金使用效益得到了显著的提升。由于预算绩效管理提质增效与健全国家公共服务制度体系紧密相关,因此财政支出效率的变化会影响地方政府的公共服务投入意愿。首先,借鉴能源回弹效应,从收入效应与替代效应两方面阐释财政支出效率影响公共服务投入规模的理论机制。其次,利用2007—2019年中国31个省份相关数据建立实证模型,分析得到地方政府公共服务支出效率和支出比重之间存在着显著的倒U型关系,即地方政府公共服务支出效率在达到一定的临界值前,支出效率提高会促进当地公共服务支出比重的增加,表现为“直接回弹效应”;而在地方政府公共服务支出效率超过这一临界点后,公共服务支出比重则会不增反减。另外,某地的经济增长预期目标越高,效率改善带来的“替代效应”会越快地超过“收入效应”,导致在一个较低的支出效率值下,支出比重随之下降,因此地方政府经济增长目标约束会对支出效率和支出比重的倒U型关系产生调节效应,说明中国公共服务支出效率的提升也并不一定会促进地方政府增加相应的财政投入,导致这种变化的原因是地方政府较强的经济竞争压力和较低的财政自主度水平。In recent years,China’s economic growth has slowed down,and the widening gap between fiscal revenue and expenditure has exacerbated the bias of local governments’productive expenditure,thereby hindering the improvement of the supply level of basic public services.Therefore,promoting the quality and efficiency of budget performance management is closely related to improving the national public service system in the 14th Five-Year Plan and beyond.Most of existing studies emphasize improving the expenditure efficiency by optimizing the fiscal expenditure structure,while there are few studies on the impact of expenditure efficiency on government public service fiscal input.This paper employs data envelopment analysis and principal component analysis on data of 31 provincial regions in China from 2007 to 2019 to establish an empirical model to measure the efficiency of local government public service expenditure.The results find a significantly inverted-U relationship between the efficiency of local government public service fiscal expenditure and the proportion of corresponding expenditure.Prior to reaching a certain critical point,higher efficiency of fiscal expenditure will promote a larger proportion of local public service expenditure,known as the direct“rebound effect.”Once the efficiency of local government public service fiscal expenditure exceeds this critical point,the proportion of public service fiscal expenditure will not increase but decrease.Furthermore,the paper finds that as the economic growth target is higher,the substitution effect brought by efficiency improvement will surpass the income effect more quickly,resulting in a decrease in the proportion of expenditure with lower efficiency.This shows that local governments’economic growth target constraints can have a moderating effect on the inverted-U relationship between expenditure efficiency and expenditure proportion.This paper contributes to the literature in two main ways.First,using the mechanism of energy“rebound effect”for refe

关 键 词：公共服务 地方政府 预算管理 回弹效应 支出效率 

分 类 号：F812.45[经济管理—财政学]