资产价格、信贷水平与我国宏观经济稳定  

Asset Prices,Credit Levels and China's Macroeconomic Stability

作　　者：王三川 范从来 Wang Sanchuan;Fan Conglai(School of Business,Shanghai Dianji University,Shanghai 201306,China;Yangtze River Delta Economics and Social Development Research Center,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210093,China)

机构地区：[1]上海电机学院商学院,201306 [2]南京大学长江三角洲经济社会发展研究中心,210093

出　　处：《南开经济研究》2022年第12期23-44,共22页Nankai Economic Studies

基　　金：教育部创新团队发展计划滚动支持项目“经济转型期稳定物价的货币政策”(IRT_17R52);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“长江三角洲全面建设小康社会中的共享发展研究”(16JJD790024)的资助。

摘　　要：本文以美国次贷危机的爆发原因和传导机制为研究起点。在中国情境下,以“新常态”时期“供给侧结构”改革所面临的实际问题为研究对象,以关键金融因素资产价格和信贷水平作为研究重心,结合现有研究,关注风险冲击和储蓄成本溢价冲击。在此基础上,通过动态随机一般均衡模型分析两种冲击的宏观经济效应,并发掘储蓄成本溢价的政策内涵。本文研究表明,风险冲击与储蓄成本溢价冲击都会对宏观经济产生负面影响,导致宏观经济基本面的“断崖式”下滑。此时,从政策可行性出发,可将调控重心转向与金融机构经营相关的储蓄成本溢价,发挥其对宏观经济基本面下行的“缓冲”效应,减少社会福利损失。最终,通过对信贷水平的调节,以较小的成本实现对宏观经济异动的有效快速反应。This paper starts with the causes and transmission mechanism of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States.In the context of China,this paper takes the actual problems faced by the"supply-side structure"reform in the"new normal"period as the research object,takes the key financial factors of asset prices and credit levels as the research focus,and combines the existing research to pay attention to the risk shocks and saving cost premium shocks.On this basis,the macroeconomic effects of the two shocks are analyzed by dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model,and the policy connotation of saving cost premium is explored.This paper shows that both risk shocks and saving cost premium shocks will have negative impact on the macroeconomy,leading to the"cliff"decline of macroeconomic fundamentals.At this time,from the perspective of policy feasibility,the focus of regulation can be shifted to the saving cost premium related to the operation of financial institutions,so as to exert its"buffer"effect on the downward trend of macroeconomic fundamentals and reduce the loss of social welfare.Finally,through the adjustment of credit level,the effective and rapid response to macroeconomic changes can be realized at a small cost.

关 键 词：资产价格 信贷水平 储蓄成本溢价 宏观经济稳定 动态随机一般均衡模型 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] F832.4