人工智能对媒体行业技能与未来就业的影响——基于机器学习和网络分析的方法  

The Impact of AI on the Skills and Future Employment in Media Industry:Using Machine Learning and Network Analysis

作　　者：卢林艳 李玉端 王成军[1] LU Lin-yan;LI Yu-duan;WANG Cheng-jun

机构地区：[1]南京大学新闻传播学院,江苏南京210093

出　　处：《新闻大学》2023年第1期101-117,123,共18页Journalism Research

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目“数字媒体时代中国故事和中国声音的计算叙事研究”(22BXW032);南京大学新时代文科卓越研究计划中长期研究专项(14914211)阶段性成果。

摘　　要：人工智能对媒体行业未来就业的挑战是确有其事还是杞人忧天?基于未来就业研究视角,本研究建立机器学习模型并发现:(1)内容生产类媒体行业处于中低风险区间,覆盖17%的媒体从业者;(2)内容生产类媒体行业以认知型技能为主,现阶段侧重写作、理解与表达沟通,未来技能更加偏向决策、服务、咨询;(3)计算机化水平、教育和职业类型显著影响媒体行业的收入。本研究厘清了媒体行业对于未来就业的困扰:媒体行业短期内不会被自动化所替代,但是在中期(广播、广电、广告)和长期(主编、记者、评论员)存在较强的被替代的风险。Is the challenge of artificial intelligence to the future employment of the media industry real or groundless? In the perspective of future employment research, this study builds up machine learning models(accuracy=88%) and we find that:(1) The media industry of content production is in the middle and low-risk interval, covering 17% of media practitioners.(2) The media industry of content production focuses on cognitive skills and its core skills are writing, comprehension and expression. In the future, the media industry of content production is more inclined to soft skills(e.g., decision-making, service, and consulting).(3) Computerization level, education, and occupation type significantly influence income. This study clarifies the theoretical problems about the media industry’s future employment: the media industry is unlikely to be replaced by automation in the short-term, but there is a risk of being replaced in the medium-term(broadcasting, radio & television and advertising industry) and in the long-term(editor, journalist, commentator).

关 键 词：媒体行业 未来就业 替代性风险 人工智能 

分 类 号：G21[文化科学—新闻学] C32[社会学]