ERA-interim气温、土壤温度再分析数据在青海东部农业区的适用性评估  

Applicability Assessment of Reanalysis Data of ERA-interim Air Temperature,Soil Temperature in the Eastern Agricultural Region of Qinghai

作　　者：陈奇 祁栋林[1,2] 霍金虎 李甫[1,2] 张娟[1,2] CHEN Qi;QI Donglin;HUO Jinhu;LI Fu;ZHANG Juan(Qinghai Institute of Meteorological Science,Xining 810001,China;Key Laboratory for Disaster Prevention and Mitigation in Qinghai Province,Xining 810001,China;Haibei Animal Husbandry Meteorological Station,Xining 810001,China)

机构地区：[1]青海省气象科学研究所,青海西宁810001 [2]青海省防灾减灾重点实验室,青海西宁810001 [3]海北牧业气象试验站,青海西宁810001

出　　处：《沙漠与绿洲气象》2023年第1期69-76,共8页Desert and Oasis Meteorology

基　　金：青海省科技厅重点研发与转化计划(2021-SF-141);国家自然科学基金项目(41861049)。

摘　　要：利用1999—2018年逐月ERA-interim再分析数据,选取青海省东部农业区的15个气象站点平均气温和土壤温度,采用误差和相关性分析,对比两种资料时间和站点空间变化规律,并对ERA-interim再分析资料的准确性进行验证评估。结果表明:ERA-interim再分析数据平均气温、5和15 cm土壤温度均低于观测值,分别偏低3.5、4.3和4.5℃;观测值与订正前后的再分析资料月际和季节变化基本一致,空间变化均表现出从东南部向西北部减小的趋势,而且最大值和最小值出现的站点完全一致。近20年来,观测值与再分析资料平均气温均呈现上升趋势,5和15 cm土壤温度观测值表现为升高趋势,而再分析数据呈减小趋势。与订正前相比,订正后的再分析资料与观测值的平均偏差和均方根误差明显减小,同时平均偏差和均方根误差年际变化均呈先增大后减小的趋势。年内平均偏差和均方根误差均呈现“M”型,最大值均出现在4月,最小值出现在12或1月。东部农业区地形复杂、海拔高度差异是再分析资料比观测值偏低的主要原因,利用回归方程实现平均气温和土壤温度再分析数据的订正,有效降低了ERA-interim再分析数据的偏差,提高再分析数据评估的准确性,提升再分析资料对青海省东部农业区农时农事服务及评估。Based on the monthly ERA-interim reanalysis data from 1999 to 2018,and the observed average temperature and soil temperature of 15 meteorological stations in the eastern agricultural region of Qinghai province,the error and correlation analysis method was used to compare the spatial and temporal vairiaon of the data,and the accuracy of ERA-interim reanalysis data was verified and evaluated.The results showed that the average air temperature,5 cm and 15 cm soil temperature of ERA-interim reanalysis data were lower than the observed,with an average of 3.5℃,4.3℃ and 4.5℃respectively.The monthly and seasonal changes of the observed and corrected reanalysis data were basically consistent.The spatial changes both showed a decreasing trend from the southeast to the northwest,and the stations where the maximum and minimum appear were completely consistent.In the past 20 years,the average temperature of the observed and reanalysis data showed an upward trend,and the soil temperature at 5 cm and 15 cm showed an increasing trend,while the reanalysis data showed a decreasing trend.Compared with the data before correction,the MBE and RMSE of the corrected reanalysis data and observations decreased significantly,and the interannual variations showed a trend of increasing first and then decreasing.The inter-annual MBE and RMSE presented a“M”pattern,with the maximum appearing in April and the minimum in December or January.The complex terrain and altitude difference in the eastern agricultural region are the main reasons why the reanalysis data are lower than the observed values.The correction of the average temperature and soil temperature reanalysis data based on regression equation method reduces the deviation of ERA-interim reanalysis data effectively,improves the accuracy of reanalysis data evaluation,and improves the reanalysis data's evaluation of agricultural services and assessments in the eastern agricultural region of Qinghai province.

关 键 词：ERA-interim再分析资料 青海东部农业区 气温 土壤温度 

分 类 号：P458[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]