资本账户开放对金融稳定的影响效应研究:基于制度环境建设的视角  

Research on the Effect of Capital Account Opening on Financial Stabilitytion:from the Perspective of Institutional Environment Construc

作　　者：马理 何云 童晶 MA Li;HE Yun;TONG Jing

机构地区：[1]湖南大学金融与统计学院 [2]湖北经济学院金融学院 [3]中南林业科技大学班戈学院

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2023年第3期74-89,M0003,共17页World Economy Studies

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“发达国家货币政策跨国传导的复杂溢出效应:开放经济条件下的DSGE多国模型与VAR数据检验”(批准号:72073042)的资助。

摘　　要：探索资本账户开放对金融稳定的影响机理并有的放矢地提出改进建议,对于实施高水平的对外开放和防范金融风险具有重要的现实意义。文章基于制度环境的视角建立了宏观经济模型,引入时间因素求解经济体系的长期均衡,分析资本账户开放与制度环境建设对金融稳定的影响,并使用全球175个国家的面板数据对发达国家和不发达国家进行分组检验。研究结论显示:资本账户开放比较有利于发达国家的金融稳定,但对制度环境建设不完善的不发达国家的金融稳定有负面影响;完善的制度环境建设能为资本账户开放保驾护航,促进金融稳定;发达国家的资本账户开放和制度环境建设可以通过资金流入渠道促进金融稳定,不发达国家的资本账户开放和制度环境建设可以通过资金流出渠道降低金融稳定,而经济吸引力和投资回报率是资金流动的重要原因。为此,文章提出政策建议,资本账户开放应与中国的制度环境建设相匹配,建议在推进资本账户开放的同时加强相关的制度环境建设,提高实体经济的投资回报率,吸引外商进行长期投资,防范资本账户开放可能对金融稳定造成的负面影响。Exploring the mechanism of the impact of capital account opening on financial stability and putting forward targeted suggestions for improvement are of great practical significance for the implementation of high-level opening-up and prevention of financial risks.The paper establishes a macroeconomic model based on the perspective of institutional environment,and introduces the time factor to solve the longterm equilibrium of the economic system.The paper uses the panel data of175countries in the world to analyze the impact of capital account opening and institutional environment construction on the financial stability of developed and developing countries.The research conclusion shows that,first,the opening of capital account is more conducive to the financial stability of developed countries,but has a negative impact on the financial stability of developing countries with imperfect institutional environment;second,the sound institutional environment can protect the opening of capital accounts and promote financial stability;finally,capital account opening and institutional environment construction in developed countries can promote financial stability through capital inflow channels,while capital account opening and institutional environment construction in developing countries can reduce financial stability through capital outflow channels.Furthermore,economic attraction and return on investment are important reasons for capital flow.Thus,the opening of the capital account should match the construction of China′s institutional environment.It is suggested that while promoting the opening of the capital account,we should strengthen the construction of the relevant institutional environment,improve the return on investment of the real economy,attract foreign investors for long-term investment,and prevent the negative impact of the opening of the capital account on financial stability.

关 键 词：资本账户开放 制度环境建设 金融稳定 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]