东北地区人口负增长特征及突出问题研究  

Study on The Characteristics and Main Problems of Negative Population Growth in Northeast China

作　　者：张丽萍[1] 王广州[2] Zhang Liping;Wang Guangzhou

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院社会学研究所 [2]中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所

出　　处：《社会科学辑刊》2023年第2期129-142,238,共15页Social Science Journal

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(21&ZD189);中国社会科学院妇女/性别研究中心项目(FNZX048-2021)。

摘　　要：人口普查和人口抽样调查数据表明,近30年来东北地区人口总量经历了从1亿人以上下降到1亿人以下的变化过程。研究发现:与2010年相比,2020年东北地区人口增长率为-10.04%,其中黑龙江省人口增长率为-16.87%,成为全国人口负增长最严重的省份。在东北地区38个地市级行政单位中有33个人口负增长,11个边境地级市总人口10年间下降接近1/5,黑龙江省两个地级市人口增长率低于-30%。与俄罗斯、日本和韩国相比,东北地区出生人口下降速度更快,人口负增长进程更明显。根据稳定人口理论判断,东北地区人口年龄结构处于失衡状态,劳动力老化严重,特别是在农村,50岁及以上人口超过一半。缓解或减缓东北人口负增长的趋势,一方面应提高人口自然增长率,另一方面应减缓人口外流速度,有效降低人口负增长的负面影响。The data of population census and sampling survey show that the total population of Northeast China has experienced a development process from more than 100 million to less than 100 million in the past 30 years. Compared with 2010,the population growth rate of Northeast China in 2020 was-10.04%. And the negative growth rate of Heilongjiang Province was-16.87%. It has become the province with the most serious negative growth in China. Among the 38 prefecture-level administrative units in Northeast China,33 units of them had negative population growth.The total population of 11 border prefecture-level cities has decreased by nearly 1/5 in the past 10 years,and two prefecture-level cities in Heilongjiang Province is less than-30%. Compared with Russia,Japan and South Korea,the number of birth in Northeast China has declined faster and the process of negative population growth is more significant. According to the stable population theory,the age structure of the population in Northeast China is in an unbalanced state. The labor force is aging seriously especially in rural areas,with more than half of the population aged 50 and above. To alleviate or slow down the trend of negative population growth in Northeast China,on the one hand we should increase the natural growth rate of population;on the other hand we should slow down the rate of population outflow,so as to effectively reduce the negative impact of negative population growth.

关 键 词：人口负增长 东北地区 人口流出 低生育率陷阱 农村劳动力老化 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学] D669.6[政治法律—政治学]