我国对外贸易影响因素的计量经济学分析  

Econometric Analysis of Influencing Factors of China’s Foreign Trade Volume

作　　者：王美霞 卢垚宇 WANG Mei-xia;LU Yao-yu(School of Marxism,Yulin University,Yulin 719000,China;Nanhai Academy,Hainan University,Haikou 570228,China)

机构地区：[1]榆林学院马克思主义学院,陕西榆林719000 [2]海南大学南海书院,海南海口570228

出　　处：《榆林学院学报》2023年第2期85-90,共6页Journal of Yulin University

摘　　要：1978年改革开放至今,我国的外贸发展形势发生较大转变。中国不断扩大对外开放,并在平等互利的基础上积极地同世界各国进行对外贸易。我国也成为位居全球首位的外贸大国,中国经济持续成长。经济全球化趋势不断加深,我国对外贸易经济迅速发展。因此,研究我国对外贸易发展有着重要意义。建立计量经济学模型研究影响对外贸易总量变动的相关因素,根据研究结果可以得出,国内生产总值、居民消费价格指数、科技水平、对外承包工程合同金额和外汇储备对我国进出口贸易有显著影响。其中,居民消费价格指数的影响最为显著,而外汇储备对我国进出口贸易的贡献较弱,外商直接投资与进出口贸易存在显著的负相关性。China’s foreign trade has changed considerably since the Reform and Opening up in 1978.China continues to open wider to the outside world and actively conducts foreign trade with other countries based on equality and mutual benefit.China has also become the most significant foreign trade country in the world,and China’s economy continues to grow.The deepening trend of economic globalization and the rapid development of China’s foreign trade economy are inevitable.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the development of foreign trade.According to the model,it can be concluded that gross domestic product,consumer price index,scientific and technological level,foreign contracting project contract amount,and foreign exchange reserves significantly impact China’s i mport and export trade.Among them,the impact of the consumer price index is the most significant.At the same time,the contribution of foreign exchange reserves to China’s import and export trade is relatively weak.A significant negative correlation exists between foreign direct investment and total imports and exports.

关 键 词：中国对外贸易 影响因素 计量经济学分析 

分 类 号：F752.6[经济管理—国际贸易]