基于混合聚类的海运通道非传统安全风险空间划分  

Spatial classification of non-traditional security risks of maritime channels based on mixed clustering

作　　者：吕靖 张晨 班豪 LYU Jing;ZHANG Chen;BAN Hao(College of Transportation Engineering,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,Liaoning,China)

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学交通运输工程学院,辽宁大连116026

出　　处：《上海海事大学学报》2023年第1期81-87,103,共8页Journal of Shanghai Maritime University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71974023);国家社会科学基金重大研究专项(19VHQ012)。

摘　　要：为保障海上运输安全,实现有效的海上风险预警,对影响国际海运通道安全最主要的非传统安全风险的时空分布模式进行探索。海上运输非传统安全风险主要包括海盗、海上恐怖主义和海上偷渡,对这3类风险发生的影响因素进行分析并结合风险特征构建特征指标体系。基于国际海事组织全球航运信息集成系统(Global Integrated Shipping Information System,GISIS),应用K原型聚类模型,并以轮廓系数法进行模型校正,对2015—2020年全球海运通道非传统安全风险进行空间划分。试验结果表明:东马来西亚沿岸、苏禄海、苏拉威西海是马六甲海峡周边海域海上袭击的高风险区;非洲沿岸港口始终是偷渡的高风险区,拉丁美洲海上偷渡发生地逐渐南移,地中海沿岸港口海上偷渡频率显著上升。研究成果表明该方法可实现对区域内不同海上非传统安全风险的细致划分。To ensure the safety of maritime transport and realize effective maritime risk early warning,the spatial and temporal distribution mode of non-traditional security risks that most mainly affect the safety of international maritime channels is investigated.Non-traditional security risks of maritime transport mainly include piracy,maritime terrorism and maritime smuggling.The influencing factors of the three types of risks are analyzed,and the characteristic index system is constructed by combining risk characteristics.Based on the Global Integrated Shipping Information System(GISIS)of International Maritime Organization,the K-prototype clustering model is adopted to carry out the spatial classification of non-traditional security risks of global maritime channels in 2015-2020,where the silhouette coefficient method is used to correct the model.The experimental results indicate that:the coast of East Malaysia,Sulu Sea,and Sulawesi Sea are high risk regions for maritime attacks in the waters around the Strait of Malacca;the ports along Africa have always been high risk regions for smuggling,the place of maritime smuggling in Latin America gradually moves southward,and the frequency of smuggling at ports along Mediterranean increases significantly.The research results show that this method can realize a detailed classification of different maritime non-traditional security risks in a region.

关 键 词：海上运输 非传统安全风险 空间划分 K原型聚类 混合聚类 

分 类 号：U698.6[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]