中国碳排放权交易市场运行状况及其效率分析——基于碳交易价格的测算  

Analysis on the Operation Status and Efficiency of China's Carbon Emission Trading Market——Based on the Calculation of Carbon Trading Price

作　　者：张楠[1] Zhang Nan(School of Economic,University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 102488,China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院大学经济学院,北京102488

出　　处：《工业技术经济》2023年第4期100-107,共8页Journal of Industrial Technological Economics

摘　　要：碳排放权交易机制是我国实现“双碳”目标的重要措施和工具。本文基于全国8个试点碳市场的碳交易数据,分析了试点碳市场的交易和运行状况,并选取2017年1月9日至2023年2月10日碳交易价格数据,采用Bai-Perron方法和R/S分析方法对我国试点碳市场的结构突变和市场效率进行分析,测算了各试点市场的Hurst指数以及基于结构突变点划分的局部Hurst指数。研究显示,深圳碳市场达到弱式有效,上海碳市场接近弱式有效。基于结构突变点划分后各市场阶段运行效率及趋势各不相同。本文详细探究了导致各碳市场结构突变和运行效率差异的原因,并根据研究结果对我国碳市场建设提出相应政策建议。Carbon emission trading mechanism is an important measure and tool for our country to achieve the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.Based on the carbon trading data of 8 pilot carbon markets in China,this paper analyzes the trading and operation status of the pilot carbon markets,and selects the carbon trading price data from January 9,2017 to February 10,2023.The Bai-Perron method and R/S analysis method are used to analyze the structural mutation and market efficiency of China's pilot carbon markets.The Hurst index of each pilot market and the Hurst index based on the division of structural abrupt points are measured.The study shows that Shenzhen carbon market reaches the weak form efficiency,and Shanghai carbon market is close to the weak form efficiency.The operation efficiency and trend of each market stage are different based on the structural mutation point.This paper probes into the causes of the structural mutation and operational efficiency difference of each carbon market in detail,and puts forward corresponding policy suggestions for the construction of Chinese carbon market based on the research results.

关 键 词：碳排放权交易市场 碳交易价格 结构突变点 分形市场假说 R/S分析法 HURST指数 

分 类 号：F832.5[经济管理—金融学] F224