西北地区农业干旱对气象干旱的时空多角度响应  

Spaitotemporal and multi-angle response of agricultural drought to meteorological drought in Northwest China

作　　者：冯凯 李彦彬 许桂平[2] 王飞 张泽中 粟晓玲[3] 张更喜 FENG Kai;LI Yanbin;XU Guiping;WANG Fei;ZHANG Zezhong;SU Xiaoling;ZHANG Gengxi(School of Water Conservancy,North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Zhengzhou 450046,China;Yellow River Hydrographic Bureau of Surveying and Mapping,Zhengzhou 450003,China;College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering,Northwest A&F University,Yangling 712100,China;College of Hydraulic Science and Engineering,Yangzhou University,Yangzhou 225012,China)

机构地区：[1]华北水利水电大学水利学院,河南郑州450046 [2]黄河水文勘察测绘局,河南郑州450003 [3]西北农林科技大学水利与建筑工程学院,陕西杨凌712100 [4]扬州大学水利科学与工程学院,江苏扬州225012

出　　处：《水资源保护》2023年第2期59-69,共11页Water Resources Protection

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51879222,52079111,52179015,51779093);内蒙古阴山北麓草原生态水文国家野外科学观测研究站开放研究基金(YSS202112);流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室开放研究基金(IWHR-SKL-202212);河南省重大科技专项(201300311400);贵州省水利厅科技项目(KT202001)。

摘　　要：采用标准化降水蒸散指数和标准化土壤水指数分别表征气象干旱和农业干旱,基于干旱事件三维识别和气象干旱与农业干旱事件对的匹配结果,利用Copula函数条件概率分布和贝叶斯网络概率模型分析了西北地区农业干旱对气象干旱的时空多角度响应关系。结果表明:基于线性、非线性关系模型及Copula函数条件概率分布确立了西北地区农业干旱对气象干旱的干旱历时、干旱烈度、干旱面积及干旱迁移距离间最优响应关系分别为二次多项式模型、基于Frank Copula函数的非线性关系模型、指数模型和线性模型;建立的气象、农业干旱变量间的响应概率特征曲线可定量预测西北地区不同程度的气象干旱发展为农业干旱的概率;已知气象干旱特征条件下,根据最优响应关系及响应概率特征曲线可对农业干旱特征及其发生概率进行可靠预测。Taking Northwest China as the research object,the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)and the standardized soil moisture index(SSMI)were used to characterize meteorological drought and agricultural drought respectively.Based on the three-dimensional recognition of drought events and the matching results of meteorological and agricultural drought events,the spatio-temporal and multi-angle response of agricultural drought to meteorological drought was established by using Copula function conditional probability distribution and Bayesian network probability model.The results show that based on the linear and nonlinear relationship models and the conditional probability distribution of Copula function,the optimal response relationship between agricultural drought and meteorological drought about drought duration,drought intensity,drought area and drought migration distance in Northwest China are quadratic polynomial model,nonlinear relationship model based on Frank Copula function,exponential model and linear model,respectively.The established response probability characteristic curve between meteorological and agricultural drought variables can quantitatively predict the probability of different degrees of meteorological drought developing into agricultural drought in Northwest China.Given the meteorological drought characteristics,the agricultural drought characteristics and its occurrence probability can be reliably predicted according to the optimal response relationship and response probability characteristic curve.

关 键 词：气象干旱 农业干旱 响应关系模型 响应概率 西北地区 

分 类 号：P338.6[天文地球—水文科学]