基于多重检验EKC的中国用水与产业发展关系分析  

Analysis of relationship between water consumption and industrial development in China based on multiple testing Kuznets curve

作　　者：李一阳 王红瑞[1] 杨默远 潘兴瑶 徐晋轩 LI Yiyang;WANG Hongrui;YANG Moyuan;PAN Xingyao;XU Jinxuan(College of Water Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;Beijing Water Science and Technology Institute,Beijing 100048,China;State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resource and Hydraulic Engineeving,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学水科学研究院,北京100875 [2]北京市水科学技术研究院,北京100048 [3]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水资源保护》2023年第2期190-198,共9页Water Resources Protection

基　　金：北京市自然科学基金(8222057);国家自然科学基金(52279005)。

摘　　要：在考虑人均GDP和人均能源消耗量两个关键指标的基础上,综合分析了1997—2020年全国用水总量与工业、农业和第三产业用水量的环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC),利用augmented Dickey-Fuller检验、t检验和Breusch-Godfrey检验等多重检验优选EKC模型参数,并进一步对水资源供给端和需求端进行分析。结果表明:用水总量、工业用水量和农业用水量的EKC均呈倒“N”形,用水总量、工业用水量和农业用水量已进入控制性下降阶段;第三产业用水量EKC呈线性增长趋势,第三产业用水量还未到达控制性下降阶段,仍将持续增长;第三产业用水量是未来用水的主要增长点,应加强地下水综合减采工作。Considering the two key indicators of per capita GDP and per capita energy consumption,this study comprehensively analyzed the environmental Kuznets curve(EKC)of the total water consumption and different industrial water consumptions in China from 1997 to 2020,and the multiple tests,including augmented Dickey-Fuller test,t-test,and Breusch-Godfrey test,were used to optimize the parameters of the EKC model.Then,the supply side and demand side of water resources were further analyzed.Results indicate that EKCs of total water consumption,industrial water consumption,and agricultural water consumption show inverted“N”shape,and the total water consumption,industrial water consumption,and agricultural water consumption exhibit declining trends;EKC of tertiary industrial water consumption exhibits a linear growth trend,and the tertiary industrial water consumption has not reached the declining stage yet;tertiary industrial water consumption is the main growing point of water consumption in future,and reduction of groundwater extraction should be emphasized.

关 键 词：环境库兹涅茨曲线 工业用水量 农业用水量 第三产业用水量 GDP 能源消耗量 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]