基于云模型的水利工程运行安全韧性评价  

Assessment of operation safety resilience of water conservancy projects based on cloud model

作　　者：宋亮亮 张劲松[2] 杜建波 简迎辉[1] 沈菊琴[3] 李海燕 SONG Liangliang;ZHANG Jinsong;DU Jianbo;JIAN Yinghui;SHEN Juqin;LI Haiyan(Business School,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China;Water Resources Department of Jiangsu Province,Nanjing 210029,China;College of Agricultural Science and Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学商学院,江苏南京211100 [2]江苏省水利厅,江苏南京210029 [3]河海大学农业科学与工程学院,江苏南京211100

出　　处：《水资源保护》2023年第2期208-214,共7页Water Resources Protection

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年科学基金(71801082);教育部人文社会科学研究青年项目(18YJCZH148);江苏省水利科技项目(2022025)。

摘　　要：为准确评价水利工程的运行安全水平,将韧性理论引入水利工程安全运行管理,构建了水利工程运行安全韧性评价指标体系,采用序关系法(G1法)获得韧性指标的独立权重,采用决策试验和评价实验室(DEMATEL)法量化韧性指标的关联权重,并利用博弈论确定组合权重,提出了基于云模型的水利工程运行安全韧性评价方法。利用该方法对江都水利枢纽工程2017—2021年的运行安全韧性进行评价,结果表明:江都水利枢纽工程的运行安全韧性逐年提升,并达到高韧性水平;评价结果与实际情况相符,验证了方法的正确性与可靠性。In order to accurately evaluate the operation safety level of water conservancy projects,the resilience theory was introduced into the safety operation management of water conservancy projects,and the evaluation indexes system of the operation safety resilience of water conservancy projects was constructed.The order relation method(G1 method)was used to obtain the independent weight of the resilience index,the decision making trial and evaluation laboratory(DEMATEL)method was used to quantify the correlation weight of the resilience index,and the game theory was used to determine the combined weight.and a cloud model-based method for assessing the operation safety resilience of water conservancy projects was proposed.This method was used to evaluate the operation safety resilience of Jiangdu Water Control Project from 2017 to 2021.The results show that the operation safty resilience of Jiangdu Water Control Project has been improved year by year and reaches a high level of resilience.The evaluation results are consistent with the actual situation,which verifies the correctness and reliability of the method.

关 键 词：水利工程 运行安全韧性评价 G1法 决策试验和评价实验室法 博弈论 云模型 

分 类 号：TV222[水利工程—水工结构工程]