基于模糊统计法的采空区稳定性评价  

Evaluation of goaf stability based on fuzzy statistical method

作　　者：柯丽华[1] 孟瑶尧 姚囝[1] 王其虎 唐华倩 KE Lihua;MENG Yaoyao;YAO Nan;WANG Qihu;TANG Huaqian(School of Resource and Environmental Engineering,Wuhan University of Science and Technology,Wuhan Hubei 430081,China;Industrial Safety Engineering Technology Research Center of Hubei Province,Wuhan Hubei 430081,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉科技大学资源与环境工程学院,湖北武汉430081 [2]湖北省工业安全工程技术研究中心,湖北武汉430081

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2023年第2期59-67,共9页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：湖北省重点研发计划项目(2020BCA082)。

摘　　要：针对采空区稳定性评价指标权重计算的主观随意性和指标分级标准的模糊不确定性问题,采用文献调研法收集近10年60余篇采空区稳定性评价的研究成果,统计分析采空区稳定性评价指标的频次,建立基于指标统计频次的采空区稳定性评价指标体系;根据采空区稳定性评价指标相对频次的分布信息特征,采用1-9位标度法描述18个相对频次等长分布区间的相对关系,提出基于指标相对频次的权重计算方法,减少主观随意性对指标权重计算的影响;通过对各评价指标各等级划分边界信息的统计法分析,建立采空区稳定性评价指标各等级的隶属度函数,并采用30个采空区样本数据验证隶属度函数的可靠性,进而构建基于指标相对频次权重算法和评价指标各等级隶属度函数的采空区稳定性评价模型,并将其应用于肖家河磷矿采空区稳定性评价分析中。结果表明:该磷矿的某采空区稳定性等级为Ⅰ等级,评价结果与实际情况相符,验证了该采空区稳定性评价模型的有效性。Aiming at the subjective arbitrariness of weight calculation about goaf stability evaluation index and the fuzzy uncertainty of index classification standard,more than 60 research results about goaf stability evaluation in recent ten years were collected to analyze the frequency of goaf stability evaluation indexes by literature research method,and the goaf stability evaluation index system was established based on index statistical frequency.According to the distribution information characteristics of the relative frequency of the evaluation index about goaf stability,the 1-9 scale method was used to describe the relative relationship of 18 equal length distribution intervals of the relative frequency,and the weight calculation method based on the relative frequency of the index was established to reduce the influence of subjective randomness on the calculation of index weight.The membership function of each grade about goaf stability evaluation index was established based on the statistical analysis of the boundary information of each evaluation index,and the reliability of the membership function was verified by using 30 goaf sample data.The goaf stability evaluation model based on the index relative frequency weight algorithm and the membership function of each grade about the evaluation index was constructed and applied to the stability evaluation analysis of the goaf in Xiaojiahe Phosphate Mine.The results show that the grade of the goaf stability of the phosphate mine is gradeⅠ,and the evaluation results conform with the reality,which verifies the effectiveness of the evaluation model of the goaf stability.

关 键 词：采空区 稳定性评价 模糊统计法 隶属度函数 指标相对频次 

分 类 号：X936[环境科学与工程—安全科学]