城市燃气管网泄漏蒸气云爆炸事故风险评估  

Risk assessment of vapor cloud explosion accident of urban gas pipe network under leakage condition

作　　者：王轶宏 翟越[1,2] 李艳[1,2] 屈璐 WANG Yihong;ZHAI Yue;LI Yan;QU Lu(School of Geological Engineering and Geomatics,Chang'an University,Xi'an Shaanxi 710054,China;Safety Technology Research Institute,Chang'an University,Xi'an Shaanxi 710054,China)

机构地区：[1]长安大学地质工程与测绘学院,陕西西安710054 [2]长安大学安全技术研究所,陕西西安710054

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2023年第2期194-201,共8页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助(41941019);陕西省创新人才推进计划科技创新团队项目(2021TD-55)。

摘　　要：为解决城市燃气管网泄漏蒸气云爆炸事故的风险定量评估问题,提出一种网格化的风险评估方法。首先,综合分析管道故障的影响因素和管道泄漏蒸气云爆炸的后果损失类型,并计算管道的失效概率和管道某一点泄漏导致蒸气云爆炸后在一个网格内的后果损失货币量化值,两者相乘得到该网格中心点的风险值。然后,利用叠加场的原理,将对网格中心点有影响的管段各点风险值耦合叠加,得出各网格中心点的总风险值,进而绘制出评估区域的风险等值线。最后,应用于实例,绘制出某地区燃气管网泄漏蒸气云爆炸的风险等值线,根据风险可接受准则,评价区域划分为特别、重点和一般防护区,并得到相应的防护区域范围。结果表明:网格化的风险评估方法能够准确评估城市燃气管网泄漏蒸气云爆炸事故风险,并使区域风险划分相比传统方法更加精细和形象,有助于提高社会安全防护物资利用率。In order to solve the problem of quantitative risk assessment of vapor cloud explosion accident under the condition of urban gas pipe network leakage,a grid risk assessment method was proposed.Firstly,the influence factors of pipeline failure and the loss type of vapor cloud explosion caused by pipeline leakage were analyzed comprehensively,and the risk value of the center point of the grid was obtained by multiplying the failure probability of the pipeline and the monetary quantified value of the consequence loss in the grid after the vapor cloud explosion caused by leakage at a certain point of the pipeline.Then,based on the principle of superposition field,the risk value of each point in the pipeline segment that had an impact on the center point of the grid was coupled and superimposed to obtain the total risk value of each center point of the grid,and then the risk contour line of the evaluation area was drawn.Finally,the method was applied to a field to draw the risk contour line of vapor cloud explosion of gas pipe network leakage in a certain area.According to the risk acceptability criterion,the evaluation area was divided into special,key and general protection areas,and the corresponding protection area scope was obtained.The results show that the method can accurately evaluate the risk of vapor cloud explosion accident of urban gas pipe network leakage,and make regional risk division more refined and visual than traditional methods,which is helpful to improve the utilization rate of social security protection materials.

关 键 词：燃气管网 蒸气云爆炸 风险评估 货币量化 叠加场 

分 类 号：X932[环境科学与工程—安全科学]