基于模糊经济计算的自来水厂PPP项目投资决策研究  

Investment decision-making of PPP water plant based on fuzzy engineering economic calculation

作　　者：杨冰 李慧敏 周雪涛 YANG Bing;LI Huimin;ZHOU Xuetao(Reconnaissance and Design Institute,Qiantang River Administration of Zhejiang Province,Hangzhou 310016,China;School of Water Conservancy,North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Zhengzhou 450046,China;Power China Hua Dong Engineering Corporation Limited,Hangzhou 311122,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江省钱塘江管理局勘测设计院,浙江杭州310016 [2]华北水利水电大学水利学院,河南郑州450046 [3]中国电力建设集团华东勘测设计研究院,浙江杭州311122

出　　处：《水利经济》2023年第2期58-62,95,共6页Journal of Economics of Water Resources

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学项目(19YJC630078);国家自然科学基金面上项目(71974056)。

摘　　要：水是城市生活的重要资源,会对居民的生活产生一定影响。城市自来水厂具有一定的公益性质,其经济利益具有一定的限制,再加上部分城市存在不同程度的财政困难,使得自来水厂存在资金短缺的现象,无法满足正常运营需要。因此,为更好地适应市场经济发展,促进自来水厂的长期稳定,需要依靠资本的投资。在建设及运营期间,自来水厂项目具有诸多不确定性,利用传统的投资决策模型无法充分考虑项目的不确定性,可能会直接影响投资决策的可靠性和科学性。在工程经济模糊计算的基础上,构建基于模糊经济计算的自来水厂投资决策模型,以研究自来水厂PPP项目投资决策。通过实例计算可知,模糊工程经济方法具有处理此类不确定性问题的适用性和有效性,能为投资者提供项目收益的多种可能性,帮助投资者降低投资风险。Water is an important resource for urban life and will have a certain impact on the lives of residents.Urban waterworks have a certain public welfare nature,and their economic interests have certain restrictions,coupled with some cities have different degrees of financial difficulties,so that there is a shortage of funds for waterworks,which cannot meet the needs of normal operation of enterprises.Capital is needed to invest in waterworks,to promote the long-term stable development of waterworks,and better meet the needs of market economic development.Waterworks projects have many uncertainties during construction and operation,and the uncertainty of the project cannot be fully considered by using the traditional investment decision model,which will directly affect the reliability and scientific nature of investment decisions.This study proposes an investment decision-making method for waterworks PPP projects based on fuzzy engineering economic calculation.On the basis of engineering economic fuzzy calculation,the triangular fuzzy number is used to express the uncertain economic indicators of waterworks:annual water sales and water fees,and a waterworks investment decision-making model based on fuzzy economic calculation is constructed.By analyzing the fuzzy net present value and fuzzy internal rate of return of the waterworks PPP project,the investment decision is made on the waterworks PPP project.The applicability and effectiveness of the fuzzy engineering economic method to deal with such uncertainty problems are verified through case calculation,which provides investors with multiple possibilities for project returns and helps investors reduce investment risks.

关 键 词：城市用水 工程经济 投资决策 PPP项目 

分 类 号：F299.24[经济管理—国民经济] TV9[水利工程—水利水电工程]