考虑公众恐慌心理的突发公共卫生事件应急医疗物资调度研究  

Study on Dispatching of Medical Supplies for Public Health Emergencies Considering Public Panic Psychology

作　　者：张公让[1,2] 曹林 杨雪洁[1,2] 顾东晓[1,2] 宋律 鲍超[1,2] ZHANG Gongrang;CAO Lin;YANG Xuejie;GU Dongxiao;SONG Lv;BAO Chao(School of Management,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,China;The Ministry of Education Laboratory of Philosophy and Social Sciences for Data Science and Smart Social Governance,Hefei 230009,China;Anhui Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Hefei 230601,China;Public Health Research Institute of Anhui Province,Hefei 230601,China)

机构地区：[1]合肥工业大学管理学院,安徽合肥230009 [2]数据科学与智慧社会治理教育部哲学社会科学实验室,安徽合肥230009 [3]安徽省疾病预防控制中心,安徽合肥230601 [4]安徽省公共卫生研究院,安徽合肥230601

出　　处：《物流科技》2023年第7期32-38,共7页Logistics Sci-Tech

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(72071063);国家自然科学基金国际交流合作项目(62111530056);国家自然科学基金重点项目(72131006);安徽省重点研究与开发计划项目(2022i01020003)。

摘　　要：针对突发公共卫生事件爆发后的公众恐慌心理这一现象,研究了兼顾公众恐慌心理的应急医疗物资调度问题,基于前景理论构建了以最小公众恐慌心理效用、最短调度时间为目标的多目标多周期调度优化模型。以2019年爆发的新冠肺炎疫情为应用场景,利用遗传算法对该模型进行了求解,并进行了对比分析。结果表明:充足的医疗物资可以抑制公共卫生事件爆发地居民恐慌心理效用增长。该方法提高了突发公共卫生事件应急医疗物资调度的科学性与准确性,也体现了突发公共卫生事件防控与应急救援过程中“面向人民生命健康”和“以人民为中心”的新发展理念。Aiming at the phenomenon of public panic psychology after the outbreak of public health emergencies,this paper studies the scheduling of emergency medical supplies that takes into account public panic psychology.Based on the prospect theory,a multi-objective and multi-period scheduling optimization model with minimum public panic psychological utility and shortest scheduling time as the goal is constructed.Taking the COVID-19 outbreak in 2019 as an application scenario,genetic algorithm was used to solve the model and comparative analysis was conducted.The results show that sufficient medical supplies can inhibit the growth of the psychological utility of residents' panic in the outbreak of public health events.This method not only helps to improve the scientificity and accuracy of emergency medical supplies scheduling under public health emergencies,but also reflects the new development concept of "people-oriented life and health" and "people-oriented" in the process of prevention and control of public health emergencies and emergency rescue.

关 键 词：公共卫生事件 应急医疗物资 公众恐慌心理 前景理论 

分 类 号：F253[经济管理—国民经济]